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Written by http://www.erepublik.com/en/citizen/profile/1319340>LordJustice, UKRP Congressman in the West Midlands and UKRP Electoral Committee Chairman.



I. Introduction

This was a very busy election. We had high voter turnout, 1226 voters. Voting was fairly busy throughout the day and there were many candidates running. The new seat distribution also had a significant impact on the final seat tally for the parties.

II. Highlights

A. By the Numbers

100 candidates overall.

Number elected/number running from the party:
TUP: 12/26 46%
UKRP: 9/22 40%
PCP: 7/20 35%
RFA: 7/15 46%
BEP: 5/17 29%

B. Specific Races

1. NI:
CC wins his 19th consecutive term. After barely scraping in last term he finished a strong second in his region.

2. WM:
LordJustice wins his 6th consecutive. Currently, he is the second longest serving UKRP MP in the HoC. GladDos also ran for MP in the WM and lost by a rather large margin.

3. Midtyllan😛
UKRP managed to win both seats in this added region. Congratulations to Saint Benedict and Necrosis.

4. EM:
The UKRP ended the dry spell in this region. Offa won a seat as a wildcard in the EM. Well done to him.

5. Y&H:
In one of the closest races of the day, Kaiser Alex nearly beat Iain Keers for a seat in Y&H. Although he fell short, it was a very strong effort against strong challengers.

6. London:
UK's Finest won a blowout victory in London. Wit over 100 votes, he got the most votes of any HoC candidate in eUK history and was over double what the next highest vote getter achieved.

C. Notable Trends
This election was very bad for incumbents. All parties saw incumbents lose, sometimes by wide margins. This will be discussed further in the report. Here is the breakdown:

UKRP:
Craig Rossiter
Silent_Hero
Wossoo
Ariella Foxtrot

TUP:
Nicolae Carpathia
MiloMan

PCP:
Autochthon Scion
Digby Chicken Caesar

RFA:
Candyman82

BEP:
DodgyDude

III. Analysis

A. 2 Seats Per Region/More Wildcard Seats

The 2 seat per region setup was the biggest change from the last election. Fewer candidates from each party were vying for the same number of seats as we were traditionally given. The last election was an outlier to a bug from the region swaps so close to the election. This worked to TUP's benefit because they traditionally were a party that has traditionally done well at getting candidates into the top spot in their region.

The relatively even spread of party members across the regions mean that they were able to use their built in advantages to maximize their seats. One notable exception to this is the WM. TUP has not had a winning candidate here since March 2009. The weak presence in the WM is partly what contributed to GladDos embarrassing loss here. It was a rather poor seat to choose from a political standpoint. The region has a good crop of regionally active candidates that it supports and it is a seat that generally favours the UKRP and PCP.

The 2 seat regional setup also led to some of the bigger losses of the night. In the East of England, rastari would almost always finish in 3rd place with 8 or so votes.Autochtlon finished in 3rd with 9 and that simply didn't cut it this time. Similarly, Jhorlin finished in 3rd in the NE and Kaiser Alex finished in 3rd in Y&H. These formerly reliable UKRP seats are no longer safe given this new dynamic. This is a major factor for the UKRP second place showing. The SW fell into the same category. It had never been as safe a seat as some of our others but Craig had managed to do pretty well.

The wildcard seats worked heavily to the PCP's advantage. 5 of their 7 seats came from the wildcards. London and the EM were the best regions for wildcards. 7/10 candidates in London managed to get in and 6/9 in the EM. This shows that the population shift due to Q5 hospitals can have a significant effect on elections.

The UKRP had a mixed record of success in the SE. However, Raziel managed a very strong 3rd and won a wildcard seat in the SE. The increase in population certainly benefited the UKRP there. However, it seems as if it had far less of an effect in Scotland. The vote total was less than previous elections and shows that the effect of getting a Q5 hospital may be diminishing rapidly given that Scotland received its Q5 hospital only recently.

IV. State of the Parties

I. UKRP

The UKRP continues to adjust to the new election dynamic. The resurgent TUP along with the shift in seat allocation means that the party must focus on building up its base. This is especially true in the smaller regions. The candidates in the mid-size and large regions are able to win but the party has lost a fair amount of ground in places like Wales and the SE. This is likely due to population shift from the recent wars, especially Alberta.

We were able to increase our vote share in the EM and SE but in order to gain seats, the party must focus on building up the base in the smaller regions. Additionally, the party needs to build up more candidates with seniority. The party is currently lacking in terms of senior candidates and this is possibly contributing to some of our losses.

New candidates are certainly good but a party needs experienced candidates to draw in votes, especially in competitive regions where they can get cross-party support. The party also needs to increase the number of forum active members. This will help mitigate some of the extreme differences in places such as London, where one candidate gets 100+ votes and the other gets 9.

II. TUP

TUP is certainly a very strong party at the moment. It has a very active forum population and a relatively well spread out population. This is likely due to the party absorbing the MDU and LSD, which added members across all regions. The extra members and well run election system has led to a very strong bench for TUP.

One thing to note about TUP is the fact that only 2 of their current MP delegation are first time HoC members. This certainly helps them in terms of name recognition but could make it more difficult for new members to break into the ranks if this trend continues.

III. PCP

PCP continues to be a fairly strong party. Its seat count has been fairly steady over the last few months. However, the PCP still has the same structural issue that has caused it problems in the past. It has a fairly evenly spread base but it is often not enough to push candidates far in regional seats. The party had to rely on wildcards to make up its seat count. This could hurt the party if the UK grows in terms of territory. Had we kept the Canadian regions it could have significantly affected the PCP's ability to get members into the HoC.

Additionally, the current members are generally young and far more hard line in terms of communist ideas. This could have a negative effect on the party's future. Many of the older players were not as hard-line in their views and they have either retired or left the party.

IV. RFA

The RFA has done better than they used to do in the past. The wildcard seats were a benefit to the RFA. It is doubtful that some of their candidates would have won in the old setup. Additionally, Maddog Jones was a small party candidate that ran as an RFA candidate and thus benefited from 2 party support. The Party traditionally had a few strongholds and this continues to be the case. It does well in the very large regions but its performance is spottier in midsize and small regions.

It is a good party for swing votes but it will continue to serve as a somewhat minor force in eUK politics. The party has not seen significant growth above the other parties and it will be difficult to match the strength of the top 3 parties.

V. BEP

BEP continues to be a minor force in eUK politics. In spite of the increased number of seats, 2 of the BEP candidates were small party candidates and benefited from the increased votes. BEP only one 3 seats on its own. That is little change from its usual position. It is facing little competition at the moment from the 6th place party and will likely survive for awhile.

However, it a strong 6th place party begins to recruit heavily, the BEP could be in serious trouble. The party still lacks policies and experienced members. It will be hard to see the party growing with both of these things lacking.