India: What Transpired and What's Next

Day 771, 12:59 • Published in USA USA • by Lieutenant Scheisskopf

Earlier today, eIndonesia withdrew from a seemingly insurmountable deficit in Karnataka and voluntarily removed Phoenix from the second major Phoenix fortress in Asia. With Karnataka removed, Phoenix and EDEN have been able to focus on other battles and also adds importance to the battle in Madhya-Pradesh between eChina and eIndonesia which puts eIndonesia’s last foothold in India and sole high grain region in jeopardy. This article looks at the impact Karnataka’s fall had for both sides, and predicts several upcoming events which will bring Phoenix and EDEN back to India in the not-too-distant future, hoping to prepare New World policy makers.

This part of the world will be the source of more conflict in the coming weeks

Impact of Karnataka
Victory in Karnataka did not seem to be too difficult to achieve, as the eUSA enjoyed a significant advantage over eIndonesia in mutual protection pacts (MPPs) and took advantage of attacking while the rest of Phoenix was busy in Europe. Moreover, eIndonesia was also focusing heavily on winning the battle with eMalaysia for a high wood region in Sarawak. As a result, the battle ended early as the eIndonesian president likely opted to forfeit the fight and focus on more immediate concerns elsewhere. Phoenix may also not be too worried about losing Karnataka now, and some degree of decision making probably considered future plans to retaking it.

eIndonesia, however, will be crippled from the loss of Karnataka assuming they are unable to at some point recover it. The country no longer has access to a high iron region, the raw material which is so essential for fueling wars in the New World. Additionally, the loss of Karnataka is a crippling psychological blow, as it signals eIndonesia’s fall from power and reinforces that the Asian country is far from the power who moved across the Southwestern eUSA with impunity just months ago.

On the flip-side, EDEN should be encouraged by this success and appreciate that their movements in India largely took Phoenix by surprise, as the complex region swapping campaign which got the eUSA into India behind the eChinese was not what most of the world expected. EDEN could deploy its military to eChina, in order to assist in the battle of Madhya Pradesh (which eIndonesia held). And in a longer term view, eIndonesian weakness could make the upcoming attack on Heilongjiang (Hello Kitty) more plausible, if it indeed comes, since eIndonesia’s economy will be crippled and its ability to finance and arm its impressive tanking corps would be made more difficult.

For both sides, what looks to be an EDEN success in India shows the increasing value that military strategy and planning will continue to have in war. No longer can the battle be solely decided by who has more gold or more MPPs. New World focus shifted to India in mere minutes, and was not being given much attention until after the eUSA attacked Jharkhand. The "divide and conquer" strategy I outlined in a previous India article was implemented, and it seems to have had great success in dividing enemy forces. The element of surprise supplemented by coordinated strikes was used to its fullest advantage and could serve as a precedent for more innovative war planning to come.

Forecasting Future India Developments

Defense of India will not be easy. Is eIndia up to the task?

Defense Strategies
The first and most immediate development is the eUSA Congress proposal given by President Jewitt, which called for the purchase of a Q5 hospital in Karnataka. Most apparent from this action is that Jewitt intends the eUSA to stay, which will undoubtedly invite accusations of imperialism which would need to be explained. I do not advocate the eUSA staying in the country, unless the eUSA were to occupy Chhattisgarh or Andhya-Pradesh in order to prevent eIndonesia from reentering the Indian subcontinent, and the creation of a hospital was a surprise to me.

It turns out that the hospital is the product of a peculiar clause in eIndia's non-aggression pact (NAP) with eIndonesia, which stipulates that eIndia cannot occupy Karnataka without starting a war (which would allow the eIndos to conquer all of eIndia). The main problem in this procedure then is not the act itself, but that so many people are unaware of the reason for not relinquishing the region to eIndia. Friends who viewed the eUSA as liberators may see what has transpired as purely self-interested imperialism and think otherwise about cooperating with the eUSA; to avoid this, it should be the eUS leadership's priority to explain why the eAmericans are staying there for now. This paper's concern is that the eUSA might use this stipulation as a loophole to justify staying in Karnataka indefinitely without eIndian consent-- even then, the region would be critical for rebuilding eIndia. Ideally, Karnataka will be returned to eIndia, and the eUSA can help eIndia defend their own regions.

If EDEN is determined to keep eIndonesia and Phoenix away from eIndia’s natural resources, a second strategy could be to occupy eThaliand’s region of Southern Thailand, which has acted as eIndonesia’s doorway to eIndia in the past. The biggest challenge in this regard is eIndonesia’s political takeover (PTO) on eThailand which will likely elect a friendly president next week. Local members of the eThai government have expressed interest working with the eUSA, citing a mutual enemy in eIndonesia. eUSA leaders should strongly consider this interesting relationship as a low-cost solution to providing regional security. This option would be a better plan for blocking eIndonesia, although the previous Chhattisgarh proposal would allow for more immediate protection of eIndia’s key regions from other threats. As previously noted, a Phoenix-friendly government in eThailand may make this wishful thinking for EDEN.

Of course, both of these options could be neutralized if eIndia were to sign an MPP with the eUSA. The main concern about solely relying on an MPP without also considering any of the above land swapping strategies is that if eIndia relies too much on their stronger friends, they may see the same fate as eSlovenia and other smaller states who are attacked while their protectors are occupied elsewhere. In any event, an MPP with the eUSA and other EDEN allies would increase the Indian subcontinent’s value to EDEN and make it a larger target for Phoenix, as a former Phoenix iron region would have become not only neutral, but also EDEN-friendly.

Thailand’s location makes their politics very important on regional security

How Thailand’s Political Situation Factors In
In a curious turn of developments, the PTO leader in eThailand, Masila, released an interesting message suggesting that eIndonesia’s friends in eThailand may be leaving. Whether or not this is true is unclear, since if the PTO stayed, they would likely succeed in taking control of the country. If the PTO is leaving, the move could suggest that eIndonesia is looking to entrench and solidify the positions it has, including the newly conquered Sarawak, instead of risking overexpansion.

Rumors have begun to circulate that the infamous 888channers are moving into eThailand after wreaking havoc elsewhere in recent elections. Day 771 of eRepublik saw nearly 40 new citizens enter eThailand, a total approaching 10% of the small country’s entire population and a sure indication of upcoming political upheavals. Either a Phoenix-friendly PTO or a channer government would be dangerous for eIndia and EDEN, as both groups’ agendas would likely create conflict in the region. The elections in this country will carry grave implications for EDEN and Phoenix both, and deserve close monitoring.
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Pakistan’s offensive has opened the doors to India for Phoenix’s European powers

Pakistan’s Impact
A looming challenge for EDEN and friends in the region is ePakistan’s curious foray across Eurasia. According to a few sources, the intention was to give Phoenix, probably eSerbia, unhindered access to the Indian subcontinent. Phoenix obiously wants back into the country, especially since they just lost access to a critical iron region (for great iron analysis, check out Devan Kronos’ article, but be warned that it’s epic). Defense of eIndia from this front would be difficult, given the wide border ePakistan has with eIndia-- this would give eSerbia a range of options for entering the country.

Conquest of ePakistan may be one solution to prevent Phoenix’s advance. By removing ePakistan’s wars and MPPs, EDEN could burn the region swapping bridge eSerbia needs to traverse to India. Whether EDEN’s leaders determined that the benefits justify the costs of declaring a war against ePakistan and then conquering the regions (which would not be guaranteed) remains to be seen.

Closing
EDEN has won a large victory in toppling eIndonesia’s Karnataka fortress and in depriving the country of iron, but Phoenix has been bogged down in Europe and will likely attempt to return to India. The ePakistani bridge to India is nearing completion and could invite eSerbia, or even eHungary and/or eRussia, to bring Phoenix back to the Indian subcontinent. EDEN has a few options for trying to defend the subcontinent, but it seems that the eUSA is now planning to stay for the long haul. Whether this irks allies of the country could have implications on which countries would agree to support an eUSA assault on Heilongjiang, which could determine who would win the pivotal battle.

This may be my last article of 2009 barring any unexpected outbreak in the New World that needs to be written about, as it nears the time of the week that I focus on getting The Week That Was together (and I need to do it in between New Years-related RL shenanigans). So thanks to everyone who has read this newspaper for much of 2009, and I hope to continue providing unbiased analyses of New World developments well into 2010. Be safe as you celebrate the New Year!

God Bless America,

Lt. Scheisskopf