Join the new world

Because this is too long to post as a comment, and because I hate not having paragraphing.

By the way, as I'm writing this the war seems to have died off (at least for now), so everything below may be moot. Whatever, it may come in useful again in the future.

Reference to Arbryn's article here: http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/esingapore-to-war-on-our-own-coin-citizen-discussion--1485143/1/20

I'll like to make my perspective clear from the start. Whether we go to war or not, this isn't about grabbing a region for ourselves. This is and should always be about defending our independence. We should consider everything from this point of view, ie. which option is best for our national self-preservation.

For one thing we have neither the capability to defend an additional region from invasion/PTO, nor do we have the capacity to exploit its resources. It could be argued, of course, that even having the region would encourage more players to join us, but frankly I doubt SEA is anywhere near the top of anyone's go-to list for a job anyway.

It has been suggested that we attack Peninsular Malaysia, aiming (I think) to defeat the PTOers in battle together with Philly, and occupy eM'sia for the time being to prevent them from invading again.

I don't want to lose perspective here. Well, I'm guilty of it myself, but I've gotten over it (I hope). I don't believe the argument should be over whether we can afford to attack, but whether we should. The military threat of a PTOed eM'sian invasion is more critical; we can sort out the financial SOP later.

I've previously suggested in Arbryn's comment thread that we may be able to take this offensive if we can gather enough allied forces. I now withdraw that statement. It is not possible. I have spent some time to survey media articles and gauge the mood. I do not believe we can count on substantial foreign help; friendly and allied governments may perform their due by posting articles and encouraging their citizens to help us, but it is useless if there are no responses. The eAustrian article calling for volunteers to help Philly for example, gathered only three comments and 26 votes in one day. That is not heartening.

As for nongovernmental, independent groups (SEERs might come to mind), if they were willing to help they'd already be in Philly. We cannot count on significant foreign help, at least not from the region or ONE.

So, purely from a military perspective, an offensive is not feasible unless the PTOers roll over and die, or run out of gold.

It has also been suggested that we do nothing. This may well buy us some peace and quiet. For a while. It's some way to the next elections, when an ATO can be mounted. Between then and now, we're sandwiched between a hostile eM'sia to the north and eIndon to the south. I for one do not think they'll give our island city a miss, even if it is just for the "lulz".

Yes, we may do nothing, simply pile our resources, arm, mobilise and pray. If they attack we make them bleed, hope they run out of gold before we do. But in the long run we will be overrun.

There is some hope though. We could cut out the long run, if a superpower can be convinced the take an interest. The Polish are now in eChina, and not that far off (although frankly I'm no fan of ePoland). And there's always eUSA (last I heard their Airborne was in eCroatia, perhaps they'd like to redeploy?)

The tough bit will be convincing them to intervene. That will be a job for our diplomats and MOFA (has anyone seen Atracurium recently?) If we do win assurance of aid, then the best plan will indeed be to do nothing, and if attacked hold out for as long as we can and await assistance.

Pending that then, there is the third option of setting up an MPP with Philly and committing ourselves to defend them. But that would open us up to eM'sia getting free attacks. Or we could not sign an MPP, instead buying tickets and sending whomever we can to help them on the field.

Many have bickered over this, and much around the matter of cost. I understand how much that gold can hurt our accounts, but honestly I think strategic considerations are more critical at the moment. Our finances are a long-term problem which will require long-term reforms. Handicapping our own defences to fix our accounts isn't a smart way to go. That's sort of like RL USA scrapping carriers and nukes to fund its deficits, except in our case we're puny. Take it from RL Singapore: spare nothing on national defence.

That said, is it really wise to take up that MPP? Let's consider the matter more strategically, goldwise. What do we know about these PTOers? How are they funded? Are they truly independent? How much gold have they got, and how much have they got left? How quickly are they burning through their gold in the wars?

Is there any possibility that we can exhaust their gold supplies using a dogged defence and force them to stop attacking?

If the answer to the last question is yes, then we ought not sign the MPP. We must not burn our gold faster than they burn theirs. The idea is to force them to spend into their graves trying to beat us, and by not signing the MPP we help to speed that up, not to mention dragging the war on longer. If need be, I'd even suggest we borrow gold from veteran players, or even other friendly nations to tide us over this period. It'll also act as additional incentive and impetus to force our subsequent governments to pay more attention to economic management.

If the answer to the last question is no, then we had better get that MPP. Better we fight this war on Philly ground than our own.

I don't intend to distract from Arbryn's thread. Besides, it'll be better if all our comments are concentrated in one thread, so I strongly recommend you express your views over at her end instead? Link's here again if you need it: http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/esingapore-to-war-on-our-own-coin-citizen-discussion--1485143/1/20