America at a Crossroads

Day 872, 11:24 • Published in USA USA • by Judean Princess
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Today I would like to talk about an issue which is of great concern, not only to the nations and individuals involved but to the whole world. Once every few months a momentous shift in geopolitics occurs, and taking advantage of that shift can define the success or failure of everyone from the ordinary two clicker to entire alliances. Looking back in time we can identify these moments, if not easily, then with less difficulty than when we try to do so at the time. Predicting them is something every citizen with a newspaper and the ability to read the news does, but identifying them correctly at the time is very difficult indeed.



One such occasion, for perspective, was the election of Kalleholm as President of Sweden. The election of one more Flashback Sweden member in a small and increasingly less important Northern European country was something that was left unremarked upon by all except the countries neighbours, notably the United Kingdom and Germany. At the time, few expected his actions to lead to the collapse of ATLANTIS, the estrangement of the American and Canadian branches of the oldest alliance, the catastrophic invasion of the USA and the dominance of PEACE and Phoenix in Asia ever since.



That is not to say every major event is caused by a pivotal moment such as this. The invasion and conquest of Spain by France (and subsequent baby boom, invasion and conquest of France by Spain) was a matter of numbers not of a single event turning the tide. Indeed, two enemy countries battering each other isn't even news anymore. The really important events are those which change things, not those who merely extent the existing state of affairs. For this reason Indonesia leaving PEACE was a more important factor in geopolitical terms than the US conquest of Karnataka. It spurred on the members of that dead alliance to reform with new rules and a cut down membership. Sometimes these critical events can lead to huge changes in the world, and if the events are just right, sometimes a single individual can change the course of history.



Right now we are approaching one of these moments. In some ways, it has already happened. The US withdrawal (partial or complete, few people can say for sure, including them) from the EDEN 'brotherhood' might have been inevitable and predictable. Echoing the same concerns raised over a year ago, the US has remade 2009 almost perfectly. The Brolliance reborn (FORTIS Mark 2), EDEN slowly being whittled down in Europe by emerging powers, a new super-power to be feared (this time it's Poland): its almost a perfect recreation of past events.



The USA is politically and culturally very important. As one of the oldest nations in the EDEN string of alliances, it represents them as much as Indonesia represent Phoenix. As an economic power, it is unrivalled. It wrings an efficiency out of its regions that is only found in a handful of countries. Others have more income, but per capita the USA ranks with Russia, and the other english speaking countries as a cut above the rest. Culturally it has survived a huge invasion and represents the tenacity of ATLANTIS-EDEN. It is a powerful country, and although EDEN are perhaps justified to complain that it's damage won't be missed (since it was never there to start with) the alliance as a whole will be much weaker without it. Region swapping through Poland and Spain is one thing. Roughnecking it through Russia or Turkey with formidable MPPs stacked against them is another thing entirely.



The USA has two unfavourable choices, and one impossible one now. Its entirely possible that it will once again emerge on top- it is one of the most resiliant countries in eRep after all. Its choices are: Attempt to join Phoenix; Attempt to survive against EDEN and Phoenix; Attempt to reconcile its position with EDEN. I will leave the reader to try and work out what is unfavourable and what is impossible. Regardless of decisions made, the USA will be in a tough position. Like everyone else they wait for V2, hoping to take advantage out of the changes. Their large and computer literate population base may give them an edge here, but like everything else it's guesswork.



In my opinion, their best choice would be to join Phoenix. Phoenix may dislike them, but the chance of securing Asia completely against EDEN would be irresistable. That said, I also think this the least likely thing to happen. The USA hates being told what to do, and the hierarchy of Phoenix wouldn't allow them the freedom they have now as a quasi-independent alliance. They could continue to work with EDEN, but again after such a public withdrawal I would imagine this will be confined to the kind of informal arrangements we saw during the US invasion rather than any kind of formal arrangement. The most likely situation now is the establishment of the USA as an independent power, which has a primary focus East not West. This has massive implications for the EDEN powers, who perhaps hope for USA to provide the bulk of pressure on the United Kingdom, France and so on in the future.




The Future of the eUS?

As well, we must remember that the USA and Canada are almost inseparable allies, and so it's entirely possible that whatever decision the USA makes, the Canadians might also follow suit. This could result in a new Brolliance with a newly reborn eSouth Africa, and eAustralia (who have both expressed interest in such a pact) included. This alliance would possess almost half of the New World’s titanium (provided eSA reclaimed all of the relevant regions) and would certainly be a force to be reckoned with.



As well, if the USA joins Phoenix (an act that would leave Canada the only EDEN nation in North America), then Canada would join as well, giving Phoenix hegemony over the whole Western Hemisphere. All the more reason for Phoenix to court the USA.



Now I am of course not saying that either alliance is better based off any opinion I have, but looking at the whole situation from a practical point of view, the US would benefit most from joining Phoenix given the fact that the other options would result in annihiliation (going it alone) or the same old conflicts continuing on (EDEN). When I look at these options, they stand to gain the most from Phoenix.



Identifying moments that change the world is difficult. However in my opinion one is fast approaching. The decision from EDEN countries on how to deal with the USA could very well divide the alliance. One EDEN coup has already happened. The next could destroy EDEN forever. This has implications for both alliances, as Phoenix cannot exist without something to fight. Poland is very nearly as powerful as all of the rest of the remaining parts of EDEN together. Old powers such as Sweden are fading somewhat. The pivotal moment, when it comes, will be recognisable not by itself, but by the effect it has on the attitudes of others. If you want to know who has their hands on the lever, ask those who supposedly plotted the downfall of the USA with EDEN. Because they are the true powers in EDEN. Not Country Presidents or elected officials, but shadowy men in shadowy rooms.



Some people are just plain Evil…