Prime Minister Election - The analysis you should read
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by Mr Crumpets
Good Evening eAustralia,
Well almost 24 hours have passed since Ranger Bob was elected Prime Minister of eAustralia - returning to the big chair some three years since he last sat in.
So what do we make of his victory and that of those who did not win?
Ranger Bob - 104 Votes (50% of all votes cast)
http://www.erepublik.com/en/citizen/profile/1343855
In a normal situation, gaining half the vote in a four horse race would be an outstanding result, however in this election, it could be classed as a satisfactory (but not sensational) win.
To be true, there was only three real contenders in the race, with the ANP Anti-PTO fielding a 'blocking candidate'.
With his convincing win in the 'Unity Government' pre-poll election over iRule777; Wingfield getting a number of older, out-spoken players ticked off; and his legendary status amongst eAustralians, one would have expected Ranger Bob to take at least 60% to two-thirds of the vote.
Falling short of this (despite the win) would have to steal a little bit of Ranger Bob's momentum coming into his first days in office (for this term).
Overall, Ranger Bob has half the nation behind him, but his opponents will argue he has half the nation against him! Talk about a coin flip!
Wingfield - 68 votes (32.69% of all votes cast)
http://www.erepublik.com/en/citizen/profile/1441969
The big surprise of this election is Wingfield. After his explosion at the suggestion of a 'Unity Government', the anti-forum candidate was expected to have his backside handed to him on a plate... instead he gave a legendary eAustralian figure a run for his money!
At times Wingfield was just under 20 votes away from Ranger Bob. For those who believe in a PTO influence (debunked later in this article), it didn't come - if it had, it would have pushed Wingfield well over the line.
What we witnessed has left us puzzled. Even if the regular GGP voters showed up, there's still about 20-30 votes unaccounted for. Where did they come from?
One theory is some ANP voters might have been unhappy about the 'Unity Government' process and throw their weight behind Wingfield.
Another theory is Wingfield might have done a Paul Hamon and focused all his efforts on campaigning to new players (who are not that aware of Ranger Bob) and gained their votes.
Or maybe... just maybe... there's a quiet core of eAustralians who are just not that crazy about forums and decided to stop remaining silent?
Maybe we'll never know the answer.
irule777 - 28 votes (13.46% of all votes cast)
http://www.erepublik.com/en/citizen/profile/5008601
Could irule777 be the unlucky candidate of the election?
Quiet, but impressive early, only to stumble and fade out in the end.
Two main factors stopped irule777 in the end.
First, the 'Unity Government' vote did irule777 no favours. The idea was essentially Ranger Bob's and that's who the voters were going to get behind.
Secondly, irule777's cabinet showed inexperience. There was simply too many people and a number of them had had personality clashes in the past.
Overall this should be seen as a learning experience for irule777. In the future, an experienced campaign manager should help get his plans across more clearly to the public.
28 votes isn't too bad considering the circumstances, but would be disappointed in being so far behind 2nd place.
So did the PTO vote come into play during this election... especially with the surprise number of votes for Wingfield?
NO!
Here's the total number of votes cast in Prime Minister elections of the last four months.
November: 208
October: 207
September: 229
August: 205
As you can see, no extraordinary spike in numbers as we witnessed in the last PTO, which was done by Indonesia back in mid-2010.
So it looks like Wingfield could be a force to deal with in December and a number of people didn't agree with the 'Unity Government' idea.
That's the figures and I'm Mr Crumpets.
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Comments
Congrats to Ranger Bob on his win
Interesting article. Voted. Not a single PTOer voted, as far as I can see. In any event, only three votes were deleted during the admin scrutiny.
Good analysis Mr Crumpets. Well done Ranger Bob, just a whisker more and you would have had an outright majority.
Thanks guys. And great analysis Mr Crumpets. I'm not going to rest on my laurels here. It was a _clear_ result, yes - but not an overwhelming one.
The proof will be in the pudding, and I hope to show through this month we can be a community force to be reckoned with - win or lose.
The one thing I would like to achieve by next month is to see the total vote # rise. But not because of PTO. Because we have more folk care 🙂
Not enough hard numbers.
One thing I will correct though CH. I never came up with the Unity vote on the forum idea. In fact it was someone who voted AGAINST me on the forum who suggested it initially.
I ran because I initially saw a risk that we would potentially lose due to the PTO. Later because I did not agree with some of wing's policy. But now I'm here I will give it my all 🙂
Here we go again 😛
Nice Article
Just as good as I remember mate. 🙂
http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/-en-ru-international-euniversity-project-announcement--2152667/1/20 eUniversity: Announcement.
wasn't a real contest unfortunately. good luck for the month.
"One theory is some ANP voters might have been unhappy about the 'Unity Government' process and throw their weight behind Wingfield."
Don't be ridiculous.
There were only two serious candidates this month and that was Ranger and irule777
Wingfield won the multi vote. He is the new paul hamon of eAustralia
You're an idiot DD2 - the numbers clearly show no multi/PTO vote influence.
The numbers actually spiked in September .... whoa ...no prizes for guessing where the multi votes went that month.
That's where you are wrong Mr Crumpets. You missed the fact that the multi horde has been voting for the past couple of months so it appears normal. The numbers have been consistant.
September - Mr Crocodile - 50 votes - Total Vote: 229
October - Mr Crocodile - 40 votes - Total vote: 207
November - Wingfield - 68 votes - Total vote: 208
Notice the pattern? Not saying wingfield is a PTOer but he certainly got the multi hordes vote.
They probably voted for him hoping to win to disrupt our elections because they know of the backlash against him and the immense dislike.
There is a horde of atleast 40. We can see this by viewing the votes cast in AI and ANP ptoed parties and via these election results.
Wingfield got popular off the forum boycott/anti-power trip vote. He rode the wave all the way to the ballot box, hi-vis campaigning (outspent in articles 4:1 to his lead opponents up until the last 2 days). Sure there wasn't any ONE SINGLE factor. I don't get why there is an expectation to pin-point a single reason for anything. Political campaigns of any nature have high and low points and a variety of things bank a win or cause a loss.
Here's my take on what the candidates prove😛
Wingfield proved that the underdog shouldn't be dismissed so easily. He spoke the language of a lot of people and they agreed with him. These 'older players' need to take a chill pill, move countries or retire from the game. Newer folks will move up sooner or later.
iRule's result proved two things: incumbent ministers (aka 'the institution' ) need to put more effort into campaigning. This isn't RL where we elevate the heir apparent.
*CONT.
Second - when folks see a Cabinet built from dynamite they aren't likely to endorse an explosion waiting to happen. The previous month's government going into lulz mode early on wasn't wanted. Unfortunately for iRule he was tied to both scenarios. That's politics.
As for Ranger - when you're popular you can't better best. The frontrunner can only go one way and that is down. The other issue with holding more than 55% of the vote is that people expect a lot of them. See Obama.
Some simple stats:
276 eAustralian citizens were active on Election Day, 208 of them voted.
Of the 50 remaining PTOer accounts, not a single one was active on Election Day.
Incidentally, DD2 didn't even bother to vote. He has been on 1762 XP since Day 1803.
Sources - egov4you snapshots, Days 1804-1811 and 1813, including XP gain on Day 1812.
Lol you monitor my account via egov? Shows how much of a nutcase you are.
Also lol @ you pretending its some sort of huge scandal i didn't vote. I didn't log on to erepublik election day hence why i didn't vote champ.
there was multi votes involved in the election, and infact every election. eAustralia doesn't have 200+ real citizens. You are kidding yourself if you think we do.
I'd have to disagree with that DD. I've been with eRep almost 3 months now and I think I've only missed one day. Every other day I've been fighting/working/training. And I'm still only ranked 252 nationally. Meaning there's another 251 people (or possible multis) that have done more than I have. I really don't think anyone would put that much effort into a multi, do you? What would be the point?
There were three multies, who were all banned. None of them voted for me, as I was the only candidate who did not lose a vote during the admin scrutiny period.
DD2, you just couldn't be bothered, like you couldn't be bothered fighting for us.
I don't keep a special watch on your account. I simply throw the daily snapshots into a spreadsheet and use that to keep track of things. It might explain why I got as many as 68 votes, by knowing who to approach and who to ignore.
> Says he doesn't keep a special watch on my account
> throws daily snapshots of peoples accounts into a spreadsheet to track things.
lol
"I really don't think anyone would put that much effort into a multi, do you? What would be the point?"
You'd be very very surprised b0ffin. I know of alot of multi's that are over level 25.
Come on wingfield, you know full well that there are a lot more multies than admin bans, also that admin didn't go around banning the multies involved with taking over the various PP positions.
How do you know they are multis though? You thought I was a multi once remember ; )
You're an (xxxxx) DD2 - the numbers clearly show no multi/PTO vote influence. x2
Admins did not ban the infiltrators. They only banned the multies. Calling someone a multi without proof, once the admins have ruled that they are legal gets you into trouble. If there are multies they are not the same accounts as the ones I have been referring to.
Supereviloverlord, you are probably right that there are a lot more multies than admin bans. However, I really wonder why you would think that the candidate who worked longest and hardest benefited from multies. If you compare the conduct of the anti Wingfield forces I would not be surprised if someone got into the gutter and used multies but I would make no such claim without evidence..
I personally met and saw the spreadsheets and analysis Wingfield does on eRep. he tracks and analyses all players in eAus. perhaps we should back up our assertions with the same numerical based evidence instead of blaming everything on multis or making random baseless speculative statements.