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Over the weekend the Freeholder Press polled Canadian citizens in view of the upcoming Country Presidential elections.

A total of 62 unique respondents were retained, a number of international participants had to be discounted as they would possess no official standing in a vote. The survey would have cost $3,100 but an important number of participants either refused the payment or reimbursed the amounts donated.

A big thank you goes out to the people who have been sponsoring this project. I have not been doing this alone financially. Because of their generosity and the generosity of those willing to take the time to answer for free, the Freeholder Press will continue running these surveys and will continue offering monetary incentives.

Activity Profile.

The first survey had established that over 2/3 of participants are very active Canadian citizens. With a larger sample this time, we can see that the numbers are very similar. 74.2% of those participating in the exercise report logging in more than once a day for over an hour.



The differences:
Less than once a day (-0.4😵
Once a day (-0.6😵
More than once for less than an hour (-1.9😵
More than once for more than an hour (+2.8😵
Are not statistically significant.

(NOTE: Percentage may not add up exactly due to rounding.)

It also starts to paint an image of the core active population in this country, a estimated group of 484 individuals. These are the people who vote articles up, perform consistently in battles and provide the bulk of momentum in elections.

Party Membership.

The previous poll seemed to suggest a large segment of citizens without political affiliation. Reading the media, forums, one would appear to see a highly politicized base. Add to that mechanics that encourage, if not force, individuals to join a party and the baseline mark of 28.5% "not a member/not stated" appeared high.



25.8% once more self-identified as not part of a party. The top 5 was once again well represented with the exception of the Norsefire (RO). Considering the level of support Rolo consistently gets during Congressional and Presidential elections, this is surprising. It could be that they are simply less engaged in the social aspect of the game or they don't see value in questions and polls. The absence of the Norsefire representation does bias the results somewhat as they have enough numbers to have taken over many smaller parties.

What the numbers show though is that there is a substantial enough Independent voter base that convincing them to vote for you can make the difference between victory and defeat.

That Independent voting block is currently evenly split in supporting 5 different candidates.

Early Leader.

The question was: If an election was called today, which of the following candidates would receive your vote?



The early leader in the race for Country President is declared candidate Kronos Q with 21% of voting intentions. The surprise is who comes second with both Simon Boucher-Ruest and Chamrajnagar garnering the support of 16.1%. Chamrajnagar has not declared and has given no indication, unless it is privately, that he was exploring the option of running.

In trouble early on is Octavian_F with 6.5%. Although his support appears constant from before the Congressional elections, the fact that he declared and received no bounce in the people willing to commit to him must be worrisome. He trails Nosyt (who went from 10.7% to 11.3😵 and Sperry who moved up (5.4% to 8.1😵.

Absent from the choices given was Muglack. Considering the political posturing over the weekend, it would have been interesting to see what his numbers would have come in at had he been listed.

Securing Nominations.



Once we established people's favorites, we wanted to know if participants thought their choices would even make it to the ballot by securing their party's nomination. So although Chamrajnagar is a popular candidate, at this point in time only 4.8% think he can make it to the ballot. Something similar happens to Nosyt as a potential runner with only 1.6% thinking he would get the nomination. Sperry disappears completely.

The weakness of Chamrajnagar and Nosyt here is certainly attributed to the strength of Kronos Q. He was quickly out of the gate, his articles have been well received and his reputation inside of EPIC is outstanding.

Fluid Support.

So where does the support go? By asking respondents for their second choices it was hoped to capture some of this transition (note that the question did not ask what the second choice would be based on potential nomination, only second preference).

Interestingly, it is again an undeclared candidate that provides the storyline. Nosyt's support would climb to 24.2%. It is noteworthy that in the first poll, Nosyt was the candidate that exhibited the greatest support amongst multiple parties.



Chamrajnagar and Kronos Q's maintain their positions or close enough while Rylde would see his fortunes improve somewhat.

Octavian_F and Rolo Tahmasee's support however appears to collapse. In Rolo's case this is not really representative of his position as he is guaranteed a nomination if he so chooses. Simon Boucher-Ruest also appears to have his work cut-out for himself as he seeks to gain greater traction amongst decided voters.

When looking at these numbers please remember that the race is very early, the list contained names that may never declare while dark horse candidates may emerge as we get closer to the 5th. The final field will not have 10 names and so as things gets tighter people's third, fourth or even fifth choices may come to be important and lift a trailing candidate up in the polls.

**Note: As I'm writing this I've just seen that Quaritch has officially declared himself on the EPIC forums. I'm unfamiliar with this member of The Crimson Order political party but it proves my point above.

Support strength.



We have just finished the Congressional elections, the picture is still fuzzy... still the Freeholder Press wanted to know just how firm each candidate's support was. All things being equal would you change your vote?

37.1% of respondents said they were locked in with another 30.6% saying there was little that could happen to change their minds. That is once again over 2/3 saying that for them, the choices were already clear.

Until people start dropping out of races and nominations start taking effect, there was only 32.2% of the vote up for grabs, a modest number.

The cynic would also say it is a lack of real choice. Not in terms of candidates but in terms of things they can actually promise to do and achieve. We are a rather older population in Canada and so grand ideas and unrealistic targets tend to be greeted with a general sense of indifference.

Policy.

Finally we asked what should be the top priority for any incoming Government. The favored response was "military funding and coordination*". This is not really shocking as the majority of our lives revolves around conflict, who does it better and who pays for it. "Population growth and retention" was not too far behind followed by "bonuses".

In other words, people are realists. Promise me more money to fight and better organize our armed efforts... attract more people if you can and keep those we have... get bonuses to make our productions better. All difficult but not impossible goals.



*includes more MU funding as well as answers like equal MU funding.
** includes answers like decentralization, foreign affairs, better cooperation, political activity and of course... not to be retarded.


Comments.

The comments section was a predictable mix of nonsense interspersed with well thought out expositions on the role of Government.

One thread that emerged is that Addy Lawrence might not have been completely dead in the water had he had a sudden change of heart and sought a fifth mandate.

There is an undercurrent of dissatisfaction with an "elite" segment of Canadian society. Also a concern that the social fabric of our community is thorn beyond redemption.

Finally there is a generous spirit to Canadians that too often goes unsaid. So there is always hope.

Thank you for your votes, support and I hope you enjoyed the read. The next survey will again cover the upcoming election as well as some hot button issues that have been spilling some ink in Congress and in the media recently.