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At this point, PEACE has been able to advance against the eUS and eCanada with little impunity, only seldom being set back in their campaign. This first series of Red Team assessments is meant to evaluate what our enemies' options are so that we may be better prepared to stop them or, if necessary, come up with contingency plans. PLEASE NOTE that this is NOT a summary of what has happened in the day's events (Desertfalcon's articles are great sources to check for that information), but is instead an analysis of what could happen next. I begin by evaluating Russia below, but will also assess France later, as well as the PEACE offensive as a whole.

Russia
At the moment, Russia is attempting to capitalize on their victory in Washington by invading Montana, but are not having as much success. (http://www.erepublik.com/en/battles/show/6889) Montana, with approximately 50 citizens and grain as its sole resource seems like an insigificant target, but eRussia is most likely planning to use Montana as a stepping stone for further campaigns against the eUS or eCanada. If eRussia loses Montana, they may try to attack Idaho, a similar state that could also be used to launch further attacks. Of most immediate concern is Montana’s proximity to Alberta, who with 661 citizens and a Q5 hospital and defense system, would be a devastating region for eCanada to lose. It is possible that eRussia may attempt to open a second front against eCanada by invading here or Saskatchewan. Coupled with eFrance's string of victories in the east (see Part 2), eCanada and the fragile FORTIS/EDEN alliance would face a severe loss if either Alberta or Quebec were to fall, while the loss of Ontario could spell the end for eCanada.

Secondly, eRussia may be moving to divide the eUS and eCanada by advancing to the east and cutting off all common borders. This threat is just as significant but less likely given the large cost of invading North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota before either linking up with Ontario or advancing around the Great Lakes through several more states before finishing at Maine. Considering the costs PEACE had to unload to tank their victories in Nova Scotia, Alaska, and Washington, their war chest may not be able to sustain this course of attack. Their chances of winning every battle, also, are slim, and the slightest setback could end that eastern drive.

eRussia could also be attempting a southward push to divide the eUS. By advancing through Wyoming, Colorado, and Kansas, eRussia would be able to do considerable damage by eliminating a Q4 and Q5 hospital, not to mention a large portion of the American population, while avoiding any significant defense systems. Moreover, this campaign is consistent with eRussia's preference of attacking weakly fortified positions. If eRussia were to fail in Montana and then tried to attack Idaho, they could still complete this objective by marching south to Utah and then Colorado and Kansas. From here, eRussia could threaten Texas, or open an invasion of the Southeast.

Finally, but less likely, eRussia may want to attack and eliminate American businesses by taking on California. Based on past behavior, this scenario is less likely given California's strong defense and eRussia's apparent preference to only attack low-cost regions. Still, California could be threatened by eIndonesia were they to invade from across the Pacific Ocean.

Our Options
Based on eRussia's past behavior, a strong defense is the best option to harnessing their strong offense. Because eRussia has only targeted weak American positions, it is possible that by strengthening the nearby regions, eRussia may see the costs of further advancement as being too high. Specifically, defending Minnesota and Kansas would be the most effective roadblocks to the second and third scenarios discussed previously. If eRussia can be stopped and forced to defend its positions, this could play as a valuable way to help take the pressure off of eCanada.

Moreover, if their campaign is a diversion to keep American resources from supporting eCanada, eRussia may stop because their efforts would be too easily counterbalanced. Simply said, the best defense will most likely be a strong deterrent to discourage further advancement.

More importantly, the eUS people must be informed and prepared to follow orders from higher up. By acting in unison and with a clear objective, we can overcome and reverse these threats. Here are a few valuable resources:

President Harrison Richardson's paper:
http://www.erepublik.com/en/newspaper/the-harry-dick-times-182480/1

The Department of Defense Daily Orders:
http://www.erepublik.com/en/newspaper/dod-daily-orders-131101/1

God Bless America,

Lt. Scheisskopf

"You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass."
- Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto (Japanese Navy, WWII)