The Economist ~ Economics Manifesto
Spite313
Please note- last night half of erep was banned by a hacked mod account. Anyone wondering where my last article has gone- they deleted it. They also banned me and deleted my friends
🙁fortunately this has been fixed. Thanks for your continued support!
Dear Friends,
What is the most overlooked, least wrote about and yet most vital module in eRepublik? Certainly not the military module or democracy module: both of which get a lot of coverage, albeit mostly negative. No, our most poorly represented module in the media is the Economic module, and it’s so poorly represented that few candidates bother to dedicate a manifesto to it at all. It’s perhaps unsurprising- considering the title of my paper- that this is something I feel has to be a key part of my campaign to become your President.
First of all let me outline the importance of strong and certain economic policy. The Economic module controls the lives of every individual and the fortunes of every single country: every battle is funded by it; every soldier supplied by it; every wage paid by it; every product bought through it. It controls how much tax your country generates and how much money it has to spend on new player help. It determines every aspect of this game. When wages start to fall, and you find yourself waking up to a job cut- that is the economy module; when a country can’t afford MPPs to defend itself because consumer spending is dropping- that is the economy module. Every single aspect of this game is based on a strong and stable economy, and without a firm hand from government and a strong economic mind in the hot seat, the transfer to V2 will be very dangerous indeed.
Q1 weapons Markets, last 30 days, click for larger image, all images courtesy of ereptools.net
A hint of what to come? The question I have asked myself in the last few weeks is what will the economy look like in one month time. It’s a common question, and an understandable one. In V2 the economy will be very different- formulas, skills, companies- all of this will change. However, it is important that when we think about the future, we also study the lessons of the present. The eUK, and indeed the world, is currently in a mild recession. This is for two main reasons. Firstly, because the population of the world is consistently shrinking, this is reducing consumption and demand. Secondly, our economic module rewards players for staying in the game by increasing the amount they produce each day, which means that when citizens quit in huge numbers our older players become a higher percentage of the population, exacerbating the production glut.
UK Q3 Food Stocks, as population drops rapidly globally stocks rise quickly
A simple formula for understanding consumption is that:
Domestic Consumption + (Exports - Imports) = total consumption
Very simple isn’t it. And what’s more, the conclusion we can draw from this is that the level of consumption must approach the level of production for an economy to be stable. Our problem right now is that this isn’t the case. Moving on from this simple formula, we come once again to Keynes famous formula for aggregate demand. Aggregate demand is just a !! for the total drain on resources in the economy. High aggregate demand is what we want- it generates and circulates wealth, and leads to a boom in our economy.
Y = C + I + G (X - M)
Demand = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + (Exports - Imports)
Now if we consider that our domestic consumption is low, and our balance of imports is negative, then we’re in a little trouble here. Our economy produces more than we consume privately, and with investment down (due to people hoarding for V2) and government spending at its normal level, we are facing a major crash in every industry which is being repeated even now in every market in the world.
UK tax income over the past 4 week period
This graph shows (without revealing figures) the extent of the decline in tax income we have suffered nationally in the past four weeks. This is repeated in every country in both alliances. Our income is entirely based on income taxes, so this in effect represents the decline in wages over the past four weeks, both in terms of bulk (number of citizens working) and in terms of how what wages citizens receive.
It doesn’t take a genius to know that or economy is in trouble. Normally, the solution would lie in a combined plan involving mild devaluation, injection of GBP into the economy and an increased level of government involvement to boost aggregate demand. This is a tried and tested solution- we’ve done it before with proven results, and the plan has been emulated since by economists all around the world. However, now we get to the main problem: V2.
Current disposition of V2 skills, UK: courtesy of www.erep.cc
V2 represents a grand reorganisation of our skills on all levels. Nearly every industry save land will require multiple workers to produce goods. In the case of moving tickets and food, this will mean there will be a wellness and a happiness component to each item. In the case of Weapons, the different workers produce different parts of the weapon (whichever it is), which effects attack, defence, durability and damage. However, this is complicated by the fact that not everything is required in equal measure. For example, should you decide you want your food to produce wellness to happiness in ratio 2:1, then you would need twice as much production in the “producer” skill to the “marketing manager” and so on. This makes the V2 skillscape something difficult to predict.
However, it is vital that we make the attempt, and make it now. I am not going to use this manifesto to produce an accurate prediction of V2 and what skills we need, but I am going to try and guess. I have spoken to many of the world’s top economists, and by looking at our existing skill requirements for land, and our industries disposition, we can work out to some extent the demand for each skill type V2 will bring. Based upon calculations made by Turkish economist and Minister of Finance Kemal Ergenekon we can get some rough idea of how the job market would shape up if every market sector chose an equal number of every type required for it:
Producer: 12.22%
Marketing Manager: 12.22%
Carpenter: 5.84%
Architect: 5.23%
Project Manager: 2.54%
Builder: 6.15%
Engineer: 8.04%
Mechanic: 8.04%
Fitter: 8.04%
Technician: 8.04%
Harvester: 23.65%
Ideal disposition of skills assuming all industries choose to equally distribute customisation points
Now obviously we can’t assume that everyone will be going for exactly the same level of customisation, or that people will choose to distribute customisation points equally between each of the 2-4 areas each manufactured product covers. However we can make some assumptions- based on our understanding of wellness and happiness, it is safe to assume food will be weighted towards the former, not the latter. Similarly we can assume that the variable for moving tickets will be distance, rather than wellness or happiness. We can therefore assume that to increase the distance factor of each ticket we would simply increase the points and reduce the number of producers/marketing managers. So we can assume that the marketing managers and producers will be equal in number, yet the project managers could vary. Assuming initially an average of 3;3;4, simply because the majority of battles appear to likely move through just one or two zones, helps our predictions further. A mild bias in favour of technicians (in the private sector) is predicted. Though heavier quality weapons will be geared towards damage, the general public will probably want something which is cheaper per fight and thus has greater durability and so on.
In addition, demand for hospitals will be rising, however as yet the formulas for production and the amount of RM needed and so forth are pretty uncertain. Beta is beta after all, and until the admins definitively say one way or another I’m disinclined to do too much guessing. Presuming early indications are correct, we will need more hospitals, but they’ll require less productivity to build. This may result in us only needing a few more hospital companies than we have now, meaning a very slight rise in demand for the associated industries. Demand for housing on the other hand should definitely rise- houses will have a far greater role in wellness/happiness maintenance as well as having a finite life span. So we can expect a little more demand for the carpenter, architect and builder skills.
Finally, harvesting will be a massive variable. The admins are abolishing quality levels for land companies. How this will translate productivity wise is unknown. If the productivity is reduced so all land companies are restricted to Q1 level productivity as it stands, we will need twice as many workers in land as we do now, or about 35+% in land just to supply ourselves with food. It is likely that the admins, anticipating that, will make some effort to right the balance on grain production. Even so, a quick glance at the graph of existing migrated skills show we will have a shortage of land workers. To guess then, I would say that the actual required disposition of skills would be something like the following:
At this moment in time, we are grossly off target. I can only offer people this small graph, and ask them to take note. If you are in an industry with too many workers like engineering, switch to something that requires more, like harvesting. If you find yourself in an industry with a red +/- score at the end, that means there will be more workers than are needed, so you won’t be in demand. Conversely, those with blue scores are undermanned and wages will be higher. Remember, my predictions are conjecture- based on sound reasoning and academic consensus but at the end of the day just an educated guess. Remember as well that this can change as people migrate, and you should check here before you do anything.
So what am I most afraid of in V2? A double dip recession. We will probably see a spurt of investment and government stimulus which will pick up the markets, however long term a poor distribution of skills will cripple some sectors and force at least some workers to re-skill, losing a lot of progress. The UK government needs to be ready to take the excess slack. We will have a lot on our plates, with the necessity of expanding the MoW to cover every skill group, and the MoHA to contact those skill groups and redirect them before it’s too late. V2 economically is going to be a nightmare- the general consensus amongst older players is that it’ll be a case of click buttons and pray. This is not an ideal situation to say the least.
My goals upon entering V2 will be to rapidly analyse the new markets and work out what we need to do to support them. This will probably mean the reopening of the Ministry of Profit, though I may choose a slightly more serious name this time. The Ministry of Trade (which never actually closed) and the Ministry of Technology (ditto) will remain open as departments of the Ministry of Finance and Home Affairs respectively. In many cases, PMing teams and tech teams will be the backbone of our adventure in V2, analysing the changing economic situation and then trying to sort it out.
I hope that in reading this admittedly lengthy document you’ve realised that I am prepared for the V2 economy, that I’ve studied it and will continue to study it well into implementation. I know that the economy sometimes seems like a minor part of the UK, but nothing could be more important. We desperately need to work out simple things, like the optimum time-distribution for new players, soldiers, mid-age citizens, tanks and so on and get that information out there. It’s going to be the biggest challenge facing our President, and that’s why I’ve devoted a whole manifesto to showing my competence in this area. I hope that on the fifth of July, you’ll vote Iain Keers for President and put the UK in safe hands for V2.
Iain Keers
Ps. If you missed my previous articles, here is a selection:
The Economist ~ Running for Prime Minister
The Economist ~ The Economy is sick...again
The Economist ~ Reclaiming Congress
The Economist ~ Thieves in the night
The Economist ~ Alliance Grassroots
The Economist ~ Society and the State
The Economist ~ Rebuilding what we’ve lost
http://i43.tinypic.com/10r22yu.jpg" />
http://i44.tinypic.com/11h565y.jpg" />
http://i43.tinypic.com/etbinn.jpg" />
http://i41.tinypic.com/2nu3qlt.jpg" />
http://i42.tinypic.com/r072x1.jpg" />
http://i40.tinypic.com/1z4v9g3.jpg" />
http://i39.tinypic.com/23mtu86.jpg" />
http://i39.tinypic.com/okvfpt.jpg" />
Comments
Voted
Ben Hüseyin Gazinin Oğluyum Pokemon,Babamın Kanını Sormaya Geldim...
all gamer
add me for friend
In keers we trust.
Awesome manifesto! Very informative.
Nice article \o/
brilliant. get this guy into no. 10!
tl;dr, nice having 100 Orgs, etc
Great trolling dish. Sure is the best way to unite the nation.
At least you know he's going to get the job done.
Ah ! When will hackers ever cease, when will they realize their skills could be used on other things that getting an unfair advantage in a free online game.
Courage Keers, when that happens you know you're on the right track !
Awesome Manifesto. Now I know where to migrate my skills \o/
Dish you can't criticise keers about lack of policy and actual substance (like on his last manifesto from members of your party) then write off his entire economic policy without reading
Don't panic people, Keers has arrived!
Awesome, i came slightly im not gonna lie.
Iain's manifesto are always excellent !!!
I hope this helps <3
you've got my support!
A terrific manifesto. It is good to know the UK will be in good hands in the future. Your additional assumptions on the labour distributions are also sound. When we get the exact formulae from the admins, then the party will start for us economists 😉
Economists who are interested in my methodology in calculating the unaltered figures can contact me in private. Here is the link for my article in Turkish: http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/-ara-t-rma-et-rkiye-de-optimal-meslek-b-l-m--1436774/1/20">http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/-ara[..]/1/20 GoogleTranslate may do the trick, or I may translate it myself if there is enough demand.
His article is pretty amazing by the way ^ it's basically the background to my own calculations/assumptions. Anyone who is interested in eRepnomics would do well to sub.
I think there will be need for carpenters, but thats my own educated guess.
I'v been in land all my e-life, and no V2 or V1.5 is gonna turn a country boy like me 😉
The problem, my dear james, is not only is this complete speculation, but you can't control where new players go, which is largely what this is based on. They'll look for the highest paying jobs, not what the economy needs, and train in that.
Not only that, but no one has the formula's for production, so it's basically speculation. He might as well have written it a year ago.
PRetty decently written, but too speculatory.
also: this does not apply to military workers, at all. We are shielded 🙂
I'm voting keers!
Dish, for a supposed capitalist you seem to completely miss the purpose of the free market! First of all this isn't speculation- presuming all existing companies still exist in V2, and all of them are manned in the same way, this is the skills we will need. I've even compensated for shifting demand in some sectors. I can't promise that it will be 100% accurate but if its out, its only by a % here and there.
Secondly, your comment about new players is totally correct. They will look for the highest paid jobs, which in any market economy will be those in areas most in demand. In addition, its unlikely private companies will be offering jobs to skill 0 workers in huge numbers, so by increasing the pay of skill 0 workers in certain sectors we can in effect funnel workers into those areas.
As for formulas- they will block apply to every sector, that much is a given. With that knowledge, the only thing which is uncertain is the necessary ration between land and everything else. I have admitted uncertainty to this in my article. We will probably need more land workers than we do now, something I have also mentioned. However, this is the first article to bother addressing the imbalance. I hope that your discouraging comments won't prevent people from doing the right thing.
I didn't say I didn't understand the point. I said your ideas are purely speculatory. You say "you want to help control what industries" etc etc, basically.
I just said everything here is as much guesswork as it is "idea".
Yes of course it is guesswork, however it isn't like i pulled numbers out of the air. They're based on solid figures, requirements that we'll need to satisfy the demand the new system creates. A few % here or there means a competitive job market. The huge glut of engineers however could mean a collapsed job sector: the lack of land workers could mean starvation. I am simply trying to roughly guide people in what they choose, as opposed to simply picking the coolest sounding job 😉
But you don't know the requirements, since you can't get the productivity formulas. Once again, it's a guess. 😛
The article is nice and all, but saying you'd like to guide everyone into the right field is like saying we need every able body in the Army. It's not new. 😛
You're wrong Dish, it's not a guess. We don't need formulas to know what % of each skill type we need to satisfy demand. We just need them to know how much productivity those people collectively will produce and so on.
This whole document is predicated on two very large assumptions.
1. Noobs will enjoy losing every fight, but continue to fight every day.
2. That build spec of weapons will be even.
My crystal ball, says new players will spend time training without fighting, hence won't need high wellness food. And weapons will be skewed to high attack and high ammunition.
I see all one hundred of JWs orgs love this
Iain, you don't even know how many workers you need in each profession in each company to achieve max productivity, therefore you couldn't possibly predict that. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. 😛
if you don't agree to org voting then don't do it yourself hyprocrites.
Brilliant article, sure to help people to decide which skills to migrate to. Much more detailed than GLaDOS' might I add.
Having skewed skills could be turned to an advantage quite easily I think, so it's the least of my economic concerns for V2. I'm much more concerned with the settings for minimum wage and tax and how under the circumstances that so called "free" services will be funded.
I'll read it later
Out of interest Iain when is the Military/FA manifesto due out as that is all I really care about?
Skillz, GLaDOS's isn't Org voted. He has 1000 more subs than Iain does. 😉
I trust you ....
And whit: 'Anyone wondering where my last article has gone- they deleted it. They also banned me and deleted my friends'....
only political enemies!! 😛 😛
'possible'
@Dishmcds
The total number of workers required for optimal production has not changed. The rest depends on the choices of the firm owners, which we can do naught but guess. This is an educated guess, or the best estimation with the available data. It is certainly better than nothing, and the data also agrees with the previously established facts, like the excess supply of engineers and such. We could blindfold ourselves and pray in darkness, or use every source of light to see our way and make the correct decisions as much as possible.
Basically what Kemal said. The response of everyone else to V2 coming is just to stumble into it and pray. I'd prefer that the UK as a country was less foolish than that. That's why I've written a ~2000 word manifesto on it. I encourage my competitors to do the same.
"Educated Guess"
"Best Estimation with data"
In other words, you're using what you "think" will be the best production value, and "hoping" that GMs will follow.
Essentially, you're pulling figures out of the sky and hoping they're right. Why not just admit that, considering you still don't have the formulas to prove anything you've just said?
Dishmcds, we're confident that we're close to the exact numbers. No we can't prove exactly what productivity will be in land. We know you need ten workers to get maximum productivity in manu, and that those workers need to be distributed differently based on customisation. If you actually read the article you would see that I have said about 20 times that these factors have to be taken into account.
I don't know how people will customise, I can only guess. Based on everything we know about the beta (including some pretty accurate guesses at formulas) this is a good starting point. But tbh Dish, my point isn't that this will be the basis of our economy in V2, it's that this is evidence that I'm making some effort to understand the economy in V2.
If the message your party wants to give to the country is "The game is beyond our control, you'll probably end up failing badly and we don't care" please go ahead. So far I've seen nothing from any other candidate to suggest they're even considering the impact of a V2 economy. I am naturally concerned by this. If you're going to berate me for spending hours getting fairly accurate estimations of the V2 economy based on all the evidence we as players have, then you might as well throw the whole idea of government out of the window.
Please- until you actually have some substance of your own on the economy, stop trolling mine. Thanks.
I'm pointing out that you're ideas and manifesto are subjective, and I'm trolling?
>should look up the definition, as trolling is defined as being off topic.
You're making an effort to understand it. Fantastic. GG, so are the other 200,000 people in open beta. The fact that you're using the "statistics" as total plans for a Presidential run are purely for political purposes, however, considering only someone who can't see through the fact that you have no real evidence or proof to back up your claims is going to believe it.
Thanks for taking the time to understand that just because not everyone falls in line with the whole "I know V2 already" theme is not a troll, and some of us are even intelligent.
Little question for Keers, EXPORTS are in your equations. If you favor exports, you increase demand, thus productio, thus jobs...
I know there is litlle power you can have over trade-embargos, but what do you think you can do ? And even is it preferable ?
Dish, I'm sorry. But you keep saying I don't understand the "formulas" repeatedly as if this is some sort of mantra. It just goes to show how little you know about the current economic module never mind the new one. Looking at existing companies now, I can say x amount are in land, y in manu and z in constructions, therefore x, y and z amount of skills are divided thusly.
In V2, y is divided into seven, by fixed amounts relating to customisation, z into three and y remains the same. By looking at optimum customisation we CAN know roughly how the population should reskill, and this is something every economist in erep understands but you :/
If you want me to talk about how I got those figures, then fine, I am available as always on IRC. However don't accuse me of using them for political ends. That's stupid. All manifestos have new ideas and analysis in them. The fact that I've actually done some work for my manifesto instead of just putting that I'll rename a department and let others do the work isn't a reason to berate me based on - admittedly - no knowledge on your part.
Melophore- I can't sadly control tariffs abroad. Britains best export strategy is and always has been the combination of cheap grain and high quality guns and houses.
I'M VOTING KEERS BECAUSE HE WRITES LONGER MANIFESTOS THAN GLADOS
*better
vote + sub
Economics? More like GLEEconomics!
thoughtful, interesting and informative article - and the link to the 'Boom v Bust' Rap video is an absolute classic!!
You do actually make epolitics and emilitary involvement sound interesting and worthwhile, which for me is no mean feat! vote + sub