Overproduction crisis: too much gold have been spend in WW3.
Two-Four-Six-0-One
The promised article. Get ready, there is going to be a lot of graphs and boredom (you may skim through looking at the graphs and go to read final part of the text). Don't expect any supernatural revelation, I will tell you about what you've already been feeing.
So, World War 3 is almost over. Let's see what we have at the end.
We have the fact that the world stock of everything: weapons, houses, iron, grain, food, are expanding like never before. Thanks to the war consumption increased and, therefore, increased production. Products are gathering dust in the warehouses.
World-wide supplies.
Foo😛
Q1 food (most popular product – it's consumed even by the bots):
Production of grain is rising too. Rising without check. Warehouses are getting full, because it's a strategical resource, and the government is paying for those warehouses.
Weapons, due to the lack of important battles, have been accumulating as well. Amounts of weapons in stock:
Q1
Q5
I had wanted to give info on houses as well, but the situation is rather strange. Apparently, most houses are sold through the black market in lots, resulting in such spikes:
Q1
On the other hand, Q5 is slowly decreasing. Emphasis on the word “slowly”. That means they are bought one at a time on the black market.
Global prices.
Borders between countries are rather open, import taxes notwithstanding. There are no transportation costs, so prices within a country influence the prices around the globe through the black market.
Food.
Food is directly related to population growth. Everybody eats everyday.
Our population grows slowly, but steadily, except for the 10-16 September fiasco.
Q1 food market reacted to the decrease in population with a delay, but strongly. Look at the fall of food prices on 16-17 of September. Before that was a slight decrease with a re-bound, but 16-17 of September was a real fall.
It seems during the fall many companies closed down, so the price is rising and pulsating (due to dumping companies with low production rate).
On the Q5 food market, however, nothing is noteworthy. Notice the slow decrease in price. It means that demand is decreasing. Q5 companies are large enough not to dump, but prices have to be lowered. I will explain why in the conclusions section.
Weapons.
First of all iron needs to be discussed. Everything's simple there: if the supply increases prices drop. Q3 and Q4 are the most popular. Q3 market is more uncertain due to companies with little capital, unlike the smooth Q4, but the trend remains the same.
Q3
Q4
Every fighter buys a weapon, at least 1 each day – without it the damage is too small.
During important battles more Q1 weapons are bought. It's better to attack with 2 Q1 weapons than with 1 Q2 weapon and then barehanded. The further away from Q1, the smoother the decrease, due to large companies having more wiggle room, but the demand for expensive weapons decreases at a faster rate than the price of iron.
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Bored of doing graphics. I think the trend is clear.
Q5
Conclusions.
During the war people were less frugal. They eagerly ate much food and bought many weapons.
The government was generous too: giving money to tanks so that they could purchase Q5 food, in order for them to fight one more time, and weapons. New companies were created with the earned money to satisfy the demand. Amounts of national currencies rose, so did the numbers of companies.
Then the gold ran out.
Let's recall how gold finds its way into the game. Of course, it comes with the new players. Mostly with new players. You can buy gold for real money, but most people prefer to buy gold from the same noobs – bots.
And how does gold leave the game? It's used to open company. The higher the quality, the higher the cost. A player can open a Q1 company after a month or two, but they can't open a Q5. And they do. Since the first day they are tol😛
once you reach such level you will be able to open a company. And many do, thinking it to be a part of the game. But when they find out that it's not a part of the game, they quit.
In other words: OLD PLAYERS ARE PLAYING AT THE EXPENSE OF NEW ONES. Old players spend the gold that is brought into the gamy by newbies. A newbies get to level 6, they get 5 gold – a tank spends them on 2 wellness packs, fought 2 extra times in a battle. And in another one. Same thing happens on the other side. 8 gold from 2 newbies vanish into thin air.
Old player have spent mountains of gold during this war. All the gold that was accumulated since the beginning of the game. All the gold that came to the game with newbies when the old players were still level 13.
It's seen on the graphs. The markets where old players were supported by countries to purchase more are falling, while the markets for new players – Q1 houses, food, and weapons – are doing just as well.
Strategical plans for the future.
So, there's less gold in the world. It's more valuable now. Price correction will ensue, first on Q5 markets, then down to Q1. Wellness packs, even though they still cost 2 gold, became more expensive. With 2 gold you will be able to purchase more than you did before. Tank battles will become more expensive.
Those who control the newbies control the world. Those who don't let newbies to open companies are the ones who are getting that gold.
Employers, grinding their teeth, will look at their work force walking away, will have to lower salaries and close companies. The least honest will survive. You know what I'm talking about.
All the possible ways to lessen the price decrease have already been said.
But, you will agree, the overall trend is a sad one. The game is not interesting enough (new players must be persuaded to stay and 2-click) in order to create more gold and play out more wars with it. But when there are no world wars it's even more boring for new players, and without new players there is no more gold. Well, you get the idea.
In the near future, victory will belong to those governments that entertain their newbies best. The most successful leader will be not the brilliant strategist, but a clown that dabbles in strategy (In other words not Putin, but Berluskoni).
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Comments
Образовывать замбириканцев надо. Похвальное начинание.
Great Depression beginning
pertamaxxxx
> Great Depression beginning
No just gold correction.
Looks like no matter who wins the war, we all get screwed over in the end.
matzaaaa
Please be serious in economic article. Money loves silence.
great article
Subscribed and voted.
Всё-таки перевели на англ🙂
Nice analysis.
nice work!
PEACE propaganda
It says: leave that game, we all doomed!
No, just make fun by yourself
Ptitzin, you don't pour me water here!!
You don't like my induction?
Wooow, you just discovered Ponzi scheme in eRepublik. 🙂
Well, it's pretty obvious and average powerplayer figures it out like 10 days into the game. 🙂
Most gold leaves the game by governments spending money to open wars/battles as well as through wellness packs.
I would say company purchases likely make up a small percentage of the way gold leaves the game.
Also, I would say a lot of the reason that world stocks have risen is because the world war kept the entire world's wellness high as everyone was fighting/healing thereby massively increasing productivity. There was no requisite increase of consumption to counter that high productivity (at least not of the same magnitude).
Rawket
Если они подписались - то ты серьёзно "попал"! 🙂
Чтобы удовлетворить англоязычную часть тебе придется каждуб статью теперь переводить! 😃
Кхм
http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/understanding-the-problems-of-the-economic-module-958956/1/all" target="_blank">http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/unde[..]1/all
Great work - this war just prolonged an eGlobal recession in my opinion.
There's no such thing as an "over production problem" in any good simulation of a realistic free market economy. The root of the problem isn't over production, it's simply that the economic module is complete trash that needs to be thrown away entirely. This is what the conclusion of the article should say. 🙁
I didn't know of this article when I wrote mine. They are related indeed. Too many people fighting barehanded and many experienced players are being subsidized. But I still advice players not to open new companies or study the market very well before they do so. The reason why is in my article and ChosenOne's published the link 3 comments above.
> But I still advice players not to open new companies or study the market very well before they do so.
Great minds think alike. My advice are the same 🙂
Nice article.
That's why we need war. If there's a war:
people will buy more weapon in all qualitys,
the weapon prices will riseing,
the salarys in the weapon factorys will rising too, to hire more workers and produce more weapons,
lot of people with manu skill will decide to work in a weapon factory, so the bread production will falling,
--> the weapon and food market will soon on it's normal way.
The war is a very dirty thing, but in eRep we need it 🙂
Majdnem
The war is a very dirty thing, but in eRep we need it 🙂
__________
Yes, we need war to flush overproductivity, but also we spent gold, wich is run out of the game to tank and to attack regions.
I liked this well written good charts I boated it.
One Word, Stockpile. It's simple just save the gold you can buy but it now at a lower price and save it up. Sell it high later hell if another world war starts up the govs may need more then they have so they buy it for what ever cost.
A very good article, highlighting some of the serious shortfalls of the eRep economics module. However, there's still tons of gold left for those who've been saving for a long time, even in private entities. Here are just two examples:
1700g: http://www.erepublik.com/en/organization/1381762" target="_blank">http://www.erepublik.com/en/organization[..]1762
4100g: http://www.erepublik.com/en/organization/1865596" target="_blank">http://www.erepublik.com/en/organization[..]5596
The temporary solution is of course to stop the wasteful spending by, in particular, governments. The only long term solution is a redesign of the economics module, which is happening right now 🙂
Garoa😛 There's no such thing as an "over production problem" in any good simulation of a realistic free market economy. The root of the problem isn't over production, it's simply that the economic module is complete trash that needs to be thrown away entirely. This is what the conclusion of the article should say.
---
Over-production is an endemic problem in all market economies in which productivity increases. In the RL, over-production regularly precipitates a crisis of capitalism which motivates the constant pressures to open new international markets, develop new products and was the very reason consumer capitalism was invented. In RL business-speak we say "market saturation" but that's a euphemism which hides "over-production" so we don't have to deal with the unpleasant contradictions of capitalism.
There are all kinds of reasons why the eRepublik free market is flawed (mostly, IMHO, it is too efficient and clean), but a periodic crisis of over-production is not one of them.
(P.S. I'm not actually a Marxist, though they have useful terminology. I'm a classical liberal who spent too long in the real world outside academia. 🙂
Nice article. Votated.
Black Market? What sort of black market is there in E rep?
well then lets start ending there freakin wars and open back the wargames.
This is a good article, and you have good representations with the graphs and all, but. . . . isn't your premise a bit obvious? Of course it works this way, and I think most folks don't need the charts and graphs to figure it out. . . . .
Good article, although intuitive to those that think about it a bit.
Good display... Structured well. 🙂 V&S
Excellent article and great analysis, thanks for all the work you must have put in.
Incredible article, excellent work. This sentence stood out the most to me, "In the near future, victory will belong to those governments that entertain their newbies best." Rock on!