[PRE] Monetary market under attack
Nagyzee
Some urgent news:
Our monetary market is under attack currently. Somebody has bought out all the MYR that was on offer for a reasonable price. (Lowest remaining offer was at 1 MYR = 0.8 gold.) The Central Bank tries to get the situation under control as soon as possible. I'd like to ask everyone not to buy MYR on the monetary market till things normalize and to choose the Central Bank's offers when buying gold for MYR.
Comments
I just want to say that this has absolutely nothing to do with me. I symathize with you guys and hope that you can recover quickly from this setback.
However, I would also like to point out that this probably would not have happened (or at least not have been as damaging) if the MYR had been floating. The central bank's peg was destroyed and they lost approximately 40% of their MYR reserves. If the MYR had been floating, the pain would have been born by private individuals, not the government.
Well, the attacker bought around 10k MYR altogether, I guess. At all rates. About 2 hours after the attack I tried to put up a few hundred MYR at every rate between 0.008 and 0.012 with the Central Bank, and the attacker bought all of that, too.
Meanwhile someone has just bought quite a lot of gold on the other side, too. If it's the same person, then he lost quite a lot of money. Maybe someone was just having fun and not minding losing a few golds in the process...
Hmmm... interesting.
Hey Nagyzee, do you plan on re-instituting the peg after this is all over?
Yes, I do. To me it seems that this was an irrational attack just for the lulz so to say. I think it was the attacker who bought out quite a lot of gold in a matter of minutes. Which means that we are back at around 1 gold = 155 MYR on that side and that he lost quite a lot on this action. (He sold some of the MYR under 0.007 only hours after buying it for 0.007 and higher. And no matter who this attacker was he never tried to sell MYR above 0.007. Which is all quite weird.)
No idea. Technically he wasn't selling MYR for 0.006 gold but buying out around 12-15 gold at exchange rates between 1 gold = 147 MYR and 156 MYR.
Who was it that was selling below .007? I'd like to talk to him.
And do you plan on setting it at .007 again? I think a more appropriate price would be .008, as this is what the price seems to have reverted to now that the peg is gone, and that in a matter of hours, there is more than twice as much private MYR on offer at .008 than there was before the attack at .007.
Well, it's absolutely natural as people like to sell with a high profit.😃 You could sell for a profit at 0.007 too still you didn't do it while you gladly do at 0.008. 🙂
Btw there was at least 1 quite big offer at 0.007 as well, but I bought it immediately with the Central Bank. We are quite low on reserves so I had to do it for now before someone else bought it.
Also it's quite hard to say what's natural in the case of such a small monetary market as Malaysia's is. 1-2 middleweight speculators playing for a rise in the exchange rate and thus temporarily taking out MYR from circulation can have quite a big effect, too. For example 1-2 days ago you started selling gold again while you are not willing to sell MYR at 0.007. This means that you are creating deflationary pressure, too.🙂
Yeah I saw that big offer at .007 too. You beat me to it by seconds 🙁
Speculators like me are part of the market, and the market needs them to work properly.
I don't know how you make the market work more properly.🙂
We are in the lucky situation that we have several companies selling abroad in other currencies and thus needing MYR input. I think we'd have enough gold on offer even without speculators. (But let's just say that surely with speculators who are satisfied with a profit of 5-10% which they can easily make by selling at 0.007.)
But you are indeed a part of the market, even if a bit annoying one at this point.😃 I'm glad that I could beat you to that MYR.😉
Speculators help the market by decreasing volatility, increasing liquidity and helping set the proper value for a currency. Its almost impossible for one person to decipher the proper value for a currency, but markets in aggregate are very good at it, and the bigger the market, the better.
Why should I take a 15% profit at .007 when I could take a 33% profit at .008 or even a 50% profit at .009? Chasing profit is how you make money, and I'm in this to make money.
PS: You know whats really annoying? Getting beat to a big offer of MYR at discount prices 😉
I'd agree with you more if we were speaking about the monetary market of a more populated and developed country.
It takes very little investment to turn upside down such a little market as the MYR's one. Or to influence the trends. This is not the market of the HUF or RON where thousands set the "proper value" together.
Though you also mentioned this.🙂
small monetary markets have to expect these kind of actions..from time to time...it is normal..be cool🙂 the myr has got stability now.
These things happen. One large agent could nab the whole market. Moreover, as Nagyzee says, whoever did it actually LOST money, while every selling agent (including the Central Bank) had opportunities to earn.
Our market is very small with just a few defining factors, such that we can easily reach an equibilrium at either 0.007 or 0.008. Our recommended rate, which is based on the cost of production directly, suggests our rate should be in the 400's... so I think 0.007 is probably a bit better than 0.008, in terms of matching price levels.