Sermon of the week: The Art of Political War

Day 1,409, 00:21 • Published in Egypt Egypt • by Franz Kafka

Ok - so you don't like the President. You don't like how he secured power. You suspect he doesn't work in the interests of eEgypt. You think someone else could do better. Stop crying about it, and get strategic!

This is real-world politics. Do you think the best person for a job always gets elected in the real world? Corruption, nepotism, organised political groups, voter intimidation, political takeover of political parties by sectional interests. This is all features of the real world and the eworld.

Sadly stamping our feet and crying doesn't change it in the eworld any more than it does the the real world. Develop a strategy.

1) Don't waste your time shouting at them in the newspapers. Or trying to ally opposition around simplistic ultra-nationalist messages (do you realise how alienating to potential allies 'Egypt for rl Egyptians' is as rallying cry?)

2) Don't encourage too much direct confrontation with a powerful regime. You will lose. Hold back and choose your political battles where you are strong. "So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong and to strike at what is weak." (Sun Tzu)

3) Do develop a broad strategy. Any strategy borne on a chain of requisite events will be bound to fail. Develop a comprehensive strategy, and consider your responses to setbacks to the plan. Avoid over optimism affecting your rational calculations for success.

4) Do engage with your enemy. Remember they are human. Whilst they may work in their own interests, they remain human being - wishes to be respected, liked, appreciated do still work on many people. Use this to your advantage and seek to make occupied time less-bad, you may then be in a better position when the time does come to make your move.

5) Do consider the FULL implications of your actions. A Machiavellian approach holds more risks than you first imagine - don't be blinded by the short term prospects of achievements. If their interest in supporting you is simply part of their wider agenda against your enemy, will they always have an interest in helping you? Will alignment to them make new enemies of countries you don't want to aggravate? Are there alternative strategies with less risk - such as alerting your enemies to the risk of realignment if behaviours don't change? Another Sun Tzu quote: "We cannot enter into alliances until we are acquainted with the designs of our neighbours."

6) Do think about the numbers game. Establish a comprehensive mechanism for watching out for multi-creation. Do develop a plan for baby boom - you don't need 500 new players that soon die. You need an expert approach to make sure that 50 new players join and stay with the game, a far more realisable objective.



"Always first draw fresh breath after outbursts of vanity and complacency."
Franz Kafka