Poland's MPP with Hungary is a death knell for PANAM
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Jacobi
Conceptually the idea of a third alliance is an attractive one, because it adds a variable to an equation that has been playing out for two years. Us VS Them takes on a whole new meaning when Them isn't as homogeneous as it once was. Its fun, and exciting, and offers a bit of flavor to an otherwise stale dichotomy.
T-shirt slogan or geopolitical commentary. You decide.
Often, in real life, and in erepublik, a tripolar world is incredibly hard to sustain whether it be the three kingdoms period in ancient China or Russia's early stance in WW2, to the Brolliance or alliances like Sol. A third alliance or power must be able to stand up to another alliance without relying on the support of the other. An inability to stand on one's own two feet renders any outward appearance of independence merely populist windowdressing. Such is the gravity of the EDEN/Atlantis and Phoenix/PEACE that smaller proximate countries like Canada and France have not been able to seriously entertain leaving their orbit because no other choices truly exist. Sure, the pretentions to independent action have been there (see Brolliance, Entente) but fault lines stretching beyond Europe have remained pretty much the same since May 2009.
The PANAM treaty, the latest elixir for the United States to produce a third alliance out of relative geographic isolation, has not been so much an attempt to significantly break these lines but rather tries to free the Americas from erepublik's euro-centric politics. On paper, with the current configurations of EDEN and Phoenix should present PANAM with a golden opportunity to spread its wings and declare itself an independent entity. That an argument could be made that such an alliance could withstand a direct assault by either elder alliance without having to resort to begging is something that could not have been said by any previous entity. However, as related in an article by EDEN's Supreme Commander, the status quo is not something upon which much should be counted.
A switch by Poland, still the 2nd largest country by POP and XP, significantly shifts the balance of power squarely in the corner of Phoenix and that reduction of relative strength of PANAM should give prospective members pause. This is especially true in Canada, an EDEN nation that would find itself at a severe disadvantage fighting against Poland in a future invasion attempt. Poland's MPP with Hungary is a death knell for any idea that safety can be found by losing close relations with the remaining euro members of EDEN. At this juncture, either PANAM and EDEN divided will be asking to be conquered, or PANAM and EDEN side with one another, thus negating the purpose for PANAM in the first place.
I have nothing but respect for the idea of an American alliance, and I support the concept philosophically even if I argue for its legitimate value in present conditions. I feel that, however brief, a third power would offer an attractive difference from the Cold War-esque back and forth we've been subject to since December 2008. The ideal, unfortunately, does not fit the reality of the moment, and it would behoove Canada's new administration and Congress to consider that as deliberations with PANAM go forward. Ultimately, Canada's future continues to rely with the gravity and powers of its european allies, and will until those old fault lines are erased.
John "Jacobi" Carpenter,
former President of Canada, founder of the Brolliance
Comments
It's the American's fault for leaving EDEN in the first place and destabilizing everything...
Agreed.
Although, isn't Hungary supposed to be neutral?
Their active wars and MPPs beg to differ. It'd be safe to say that at best, they are the same sort of neutral as the US circa September 2009.
Jacobi you remind me what I wrote several days ago:
http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/panam-is-good-but--1620272/1/20
Good insight Jacobi.
No offense, I hope you're wrong. But I fear you are right. Regardless of what happens, I will continue to insist to my American friends that our countries remain allies.
Canada+USA 4 lyfe
Every country tries to fulfil it's own national interest. It is currently in Polish national interest to allly itself with Hungary and form an alliance of two most powerful countries in eRepublic. I thoroughly hope that Canada will not at any point have different interests than Poland since that would mean war (and me loosing/resigning from my job)
What's wrong with a little chaos?
Not only that.
Having the major countries in such a narrow band of timezones is a recipe for disaster.
you're acting as if Poland completely switched sides to Phoenix, which really only exists in name. I don't see Poland reneging on the US or its closest allies after a successful and profitable months long region swap that gave them among other things WSR (back when it was still important).
V!
I think you're pre-mature with this speculative piece. We honestly don't know how the situation in Europe will play out. I'd be very surprised if we've seen the end of the drama. Furthermore, an idependant alliance does not have to be as strong as every other alliance to be independant for two reasons. Firstly, your use of unquantified 'strength' is simplistic and doesn't take into account the time zone spread that a successful invasion of our continent would require. Secondly, Poland is by no means on the verge of invading friends that it has had for ages. You can not honestly say that you know what they are planning with Serbia and Hungary, though you try to portray their MPP as a full swap to PHX. Isn't it just as likely that Serbia, Hungary and Poland are going to strike off in their own direction and form their own 3rd (or 4th) alliance? And to add to that, how do you know that those countries may not be interested in allying with PANAM? It would make a truly unbeatable time zone spread of damage and many would consider it tactically sound.
My point, with this wall of text, is that you are over-simplifying a very complicated situation and then applying only one possiable interprettation of recent events to justify clinging to a broken down alliance (EDEN) simply because you're nervous about Poland's intentions while on your border.
Agreed jacobi, I think the time is still at unity, and beside game mechanic dictates that we need to have allies in all timezone, wich was explaining recent military success at winning battles in most round.
Jeeze, nervous about Poland's intentions while on my border when Canada experienced a very similar situation while I was President? Silly me ^.^
I think that when you start making assumptions, as you must do when speculating (as you do in your comment, as I do in my article), you have to recognize that you could be wrong. I realize that without a full and complete picture my commentary is flawed.
However, the difference between my interpretation and yours is that my interpretation isn't a good one for your hobby-horse and so you feel the need to present alternatives. Your alternatives are very hopeful and positive outcomes, but I don't personally feel that planning on the best possible outcome is more prudent than planning on a worst possible outcome when a probable outcome can't be discerned.
I'm not a gambling man, nor would I advise any government to gamble with its security. Sorry.
It's funny because you think that stubbornly clinging to an alliance that is obviously dying is the secure path to take.
I'm done with EDEN. EDEN is boring and more of the same. I'm all for shaking things up...
That said, Jacobi is probably right here...
Octavian_F
Nah that ignanttt
Concerning Pays de Loire:
At first i thought it was a simply initiative issue while peace was brokered; however, i noticed that this could not be the case as Poland still controls: Burgandy and Loire Valley. (In a situation where it was simply initiative trading until there was peace Poland would only control Poitou Charentes).
I can only surmise two reasons:
1) France lost a battle due to an unnofficial resistance in it's attempt to retake one of its regions
or
2) Poland or France broke the treaty.
It is important we ascertain the reason why Poland would attack pays de loire 😁 as the area that they are attacking does coincidentally border Canada; Although, i would find it strategically unsound for Poland to break the treaty as they have all the resources they need to max.
Lavis Knight, Poland is signing peace with France as we speak, as can be seen from their nation's administration page. With the Natural Enemy-feature, countries are encouraged to fight until a peace is signed or the other one is destroyed. That's done by automatic attacking, and since the Polish president didn't choose a target to attack, Poitou Charentes was chosen randomly as the target. I doubt Canada is first on their hitlist, so they'll probably RW it back to France as said in the peace treaty.
I kinda agree but your analysis basicly suggests that Eden has swapped Poland for Brazil with Phx... I think this is an over-simplification and the old Phx countries - eFrance, eRussia etc could be vital.
Superb stuff
Can we see a Soviet-Capitalist Alliance?
this PANAM thingy sounds retarded.
My philosophy for rCanada is to go with the strongest partners available. That's why I support EDEN + America for Canada. With all the nations leaving Phoenix, EDEN (even without Poland) is still our best defense against invasion compared to PANAM, whatever the now-independent European nations are up to and if EDEN can acquire some of these new independent nations without antagonising the US, all the better.
Reminds me of Orwell's 1984!
"We are at war war with Eastasia. We've always been at war with Eastasia"
A 3-alliance world would encoumber a fatality were there is always the need of peace with one of the ennemy to attack the other and vice versa. Only time tell which country is our ally and which country is our enemy. The only thing that it willd o is a sure way to make people consume more and make the industries thrive.
But that implies that 3 sided war wouldn't work. We dont always need to be at peace with an enemy to attack another; that would eliminate the point of 'Strategy'. More enemies, more fun! 😃
"PANAM and EDEN divided will be asking to be conquered, or PANAM and EDEN side with one another, thus negating the purpose for PANAM in the first place."
Jacobi, while I agree that there must be balance in the world powers so as to balance the strength of the polish+hungarian alliance. I do not agree that a PANAM + EDEN scenario is totally out of the question.
realistically, an alliance of alliances ie PANAM + EDEN might be far more functional than the past EDEN super alliance circa 6 months ago when many non-european members (ie. united states) felt that their interests were not being served by the EDEN machine.
As canadian's we may in fact get alot out of being in both alliances. And at the very least a PANAM alliance might more seriously consider security of the America's.
keep in mind also that the USA + BRAZIL ain't no small force
If Canada doesn't have to choose between PANAM and EDEN, then what's the real point of PANAM? Isn't it then just the William Duncan idea of the Brolliance with another name?
Seems to me that rising powers China and Brazil aren't too happy to just plug themselves into the old Eden/Phoenix equation and into the old boy networks that control them.
Seems we and our closest allies are better off embracing the shuffling of the deck while the best cards are available to be drawn. If we join the game late and pass on our turn to draw the prime cards now, we may get stuck playing a pretty weak hand.
jacobi do you mean then if canada isn't in PANAM then there is no point to PANAM? I would think if canada doesn't have to choose between either alliance then we would get the benefit of both alliances wouldn't we?
of course if MPPs conflict that could be a problem
😁^ i think he means there is no point for us to be in it if we don't choose one or the other.
but yes... why not try and have the best of both worlds we are loved by EDEN and by our BRO's the United States
Why not just be "bro's" with both for a while, and when the day comes that we have to choose we do it then
Kinda like dating 2 chicks at the same time and sticking with the one that puts out first...
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