Join the new world

Greetings Blighty. Its been a while since my last article, and during that time I've returned to the game. Those closest to me know my reasons for taking a leave of absence, and those same people also know why I'm delaying that absence. Just to allay some fears that I've been informed about: I'm not returning to help the puppetmaster dastardly, nor am I returning in the hope of returning to office. I'm here mainly to help ease the UK into what I feel is the right path, and assist any president or minister should they seek my help.

Now thats out of the way, here is what I have managed to gather from the current international climate within alliance politics, and I hope that whilst this article is huge in length, it will also be huge in informative content for all. I should stress however, that this is purely my opinion and interpretation; there is no guaranteed factual evidence, just the interpretation of a 4 time President, 1 time Phoenix Supreme Commander, and member of the Phoenix Strategic Council for roughly 6 months before Phoenix all but died.




Before I delve into the nitty gritty, I feel I should recap on what alliance politics has, up until recently, been based on. The whole thing is, when boiled down to it, an argument which started shortly after the release of the war module, with two fighting factions. I'll refer, for the sake of ease, to these factions as PEACE and EDEN. Prior to the inception of the "global alliances" we had a relatively evenly matched globe in terms of alliances. There was countries such as Norway, which spanned Russia, Romania which spanned much of Eastern europe, and at times Asia. Then there was Indonesia, which was considered one of the most powerful, with its colonies across the globe.

To combat each side gaining more and more power, alliances eventually consolidated, leading into the eventual PEACE-EDEN conflict, which was fought from Romania vs Hungary in Eastern Europe, Indonesia vs Romania in Asia, Pakistan dominating China with assistance from Iran, and as almost everyone knows of, Hungary, Indonesia, France and Russia entering into the USA.

Since the inception of Global alliances, there has been an underlying acceptance that with the pooling of supplies, damage (now known as influence) and income, there was also to be the pooling of responsibility, risk and cost. As such, the governing of each alliance got to the point where there could be upwards of 15 theatres of war, per day, where each side was in one form or another battling to conquer, or defend against, the other. Obviously, with such a far-reaching and comprehensive calendar for war, each side would ultimately have to sacrifice one limb, to ensure the success of the other. In PEACE, we saw the sacrifice of nations smaller nations at first, to enable the invasions of Romania, Croatia, USA, China and various others. In EDEN, nations such as Sweden, Norway, Finland, Canada, and seemingly at times, bigger nations such as the USA and Croatia too.

The point of the exercise was simple; if you can deal a bigger blow to your opponent at a certain time, its worth losing one piece of your arsenal, as they will lose a bigger piece; just as in chess you would always sacrifice a pawn to take an opponents Queen.

The reason for the move from global alliances towards more fractured ones is a move which founders hope will lead to their countries being safer. As such, with proposals such as New World Order, PANAM, and the inevitable replacement of EDEN (why? I'll explain later) we will move from a 1v1 battleground, into a re-shaped environment. By focusing on geographic as will as military situations, founders are hopeful that instead of focusing purely on might, they can re-create a system of dastardly.






New World Order.

This alliance (name not confirmed) is the biggest talk. Can Poland really abandon traditional EDEN allies? How will Hungary and Serbia be able to work with a country which has spent thousands of gold against both of them, and deprived both of big colonies? Will this lead to ex Phoenix nations being against each other?

The truth of NWO is, in my mind, to try and consolidate as much power as possible, in as little countries as possible. Without having countries which could be considered a net drain on resources (see: any country smaller in population than a country such as France) this alliance has the scope to expand almost limitless-ly, as members can easily distract their opponents with invasions, instead of having to deal with the ultimate drain which is a campaign from a big country, against a smaller neighbour (see: Poland v Germany, Spain v France in V1). This alliance has the scope to really change not only the balance of power within the world, but also, the traditional makeup of the continuous stream that is the replacements of past alliances.


Potential Members, and why


As clearly shown in the media, the most prominent members of both traditional sides would be interested if they could enter. From PHOENIX, we have countries such as Turkey, Macedonia, Hungary, Serbia and possibly Russia. From EDEN, we have Spain and Poland.

Why would EDEN countries consider an alliance made up predominantly of ex PHOENIX members? Put simply, neither global alliance can consider itself successful all the time, and as such, there will be at times, a belief that the alliance has failed a member country. Poland and Spain have every right to be aggrieved with the fact that in terms of income, these two countries account for around 30% of EDEN. In terms of military power, probably a similar amount.

Not only this, but both countries have been at times alienated by the divisions within EDEN. At first, this division was between two sides; "Brolliance" members, along with Romania, Croatia and various other states such as Finland and Latvia. On the other side, the infamous Spoland. However in more recent times, and with the declaration of PANAM, I would consider that EDEN is now technically in three "corners"

In one corner, we have America and the Brolliance, minus Canada. These members will ultimately end up leaving EDEN completely, and finalising the formation of PANAM. I would suspect America, eventually Canada, Ireland, Australia and possibly China would consider this option.

In another corner, we have the traditional EDEN members, in Romania and Croatia. Outraged at the losses which lead to the deletion of Croatia, and alienated by the actions of Poland and Spain, who chose to invade Germany and Spain at a time when EDEN was planning an invasion of Asia, these countries have also been busy alienating their American and alike allies with the ongoing assaults against Hungary and Serbia, dubbed "unending", as neither side will ever likely take the advantage and finish a war again. Romania and Croatia have nothing to gain from joining PANAM, and with rising tensions with America, after their unofficial support for an EDEN campaign lead by Spain and Poland against them, neither country will likely get an invitation to join either. I would suspect that joining Croatia and Romania in the formation of EDEN mark II, would be Italy, Latvia, Finland, Bosnia, Norway and potentially Sweden.

In the final corner is the aforementioned Spoland. Whilst traditionally Spain enjoyed good relations with America, and Poland with "Cromania", these affections suffered dramatically over the past several months. Firstly, Spain alienated America massively when they did not stop Poland from trying to Invade America with Serbia and Hungary earlier this year. Unfortunately, this epic war was averted by some very hasty promises. Spain also alienated the Eastern European side of EDEN with its French invasions in 2010 and earlier. It was a pivotal time for EDEN, who had just finalized a campaign which would've seen Croatia swapped into Asia, to free Hellokitty and Lionking (what is it with cats and Iron?), as well as a potential damage drain invasion into Hungary. EDEN also became tired of having to deal with the continued theft of the Spanish bank. Poland alienated its Romanian and Croatian friends not only by demanding their support against America, but also, with its German campaigns. These all but stopped EDENs plans indefinitely, and lead to a constant struggle for German regions. As well as this, the cooling of relations with Hungary, who they declared a Non Agression Pact with, and ultimately an MPP. Finally, when the USA was seen to woo France in the infamous "we respect you" article, this sealed the nail in the coffin of this once fruitful relationship, with Spain outraged and Poland supporting them. That, is why I believe they will cut their bridges, and join NWO


As for PHOENIX countries, there divides within Phoenix are well documented; with American nations such as Brazil and Argentina feeling their battles were ignored in favour of the traditional battlefield of Europe. In New World Order, we see that european contingent join together with its one time enemies, to ensure that not only are they safe from invasion elsewhere (EDEN), but also, have enough pooled power and resources to ensure expansion opportunities. There is potential for other members to join, and I think that the only other PHOENIX nation who could consider it would be Indonesia. Whilst their longtime Brothers In Arms allies of Argentina and Brazil are all but committed to PANAM, I think it would be difficult for Indonesia to enter this alliance. First of all, Australia and China are both likely members, which would severely hamper the potential for Indonesia to expand, and as there is no love lost between these countries, it would also most likely lead to massive problems internally for PANAM. As many people know, the meeting room for Phoenix was #ihs - Indonesia, Hungary and Serbia. Whilst not reflective of PHOENIX, it did show that prior to the formation of PHOENIX, these three countries had a constant flow of communication. All three are also some of the longest allies in the globe.

To conclude, I would think that NWO would be made up of predominantly European countries, with the majority coming from ex PHOENIX members. Therefore, whilst it does have some new EDEN countries, I would consider this a part-reformation of the traditions of PHOENIX and PEACE-GC. As well as this, with such a huge set of nations, and the borders (as well as history) all nations have with America, I believe this alliance could potentially target America, to try and recreate the glory days of PEACE-GC, which almost any country would love to be a part of.







PANAM

The first of the new alliances to declare itself, PANAM has tried to take the initiative, and woo members from both sides into joining the "third way" of alliances. Indeed, this isn't a new feat for an America lead alliance, with the Brolliance still technically in existence. However, with higher levels of alienation in both PHOENIX and EDEN, PANAM has had the timing nailed down to a tee. As well as this, I feel that nations from both sides have decided to take a leap of faith, and with the declaration of PANAM, this ultimately sealed the fate of both PHOENIX and EDEN.

In terms of what it hopes to do, I believe that ultimately PANAM will be forever trying to declare that it is not a puppet of the American state, and pandering to the needs of the USA. The only way to do this, however, is to show it, and with the current crop of potential members, I am sure they will do this within weeks. But why?. As the USA has poor relations with both sides of the historical wars (Serbia v Croatia, Hungary v Romania), neither NWO or EDEN mk II was going to cut it; as well as this, there is the belief that without either of these 4 nations, the alliance will not be tied down into fruitless wars over the same region ever day or so. The flaw in this, however, is that this means the alliance will be without some of the biggest armies (Serbia), strongest soldiers (Romania/Hungary) or most dedicated troops (Serbia/Croatia) in the globe. As such, PANAM will have to incorporate some of the lesser countries, to make up for the fact that even their biggest nations would be squarely beaten by many of the nations in both NWO or EDEN mk II.

Potential Members and why

Firstly, there will be those who join PANAM out of choice. I believe that these countries are well documented; those on the American continent. It makes sense for these countries to group together, because they will be able to dominate the night-time rounds, and pick up easy wins whilst the mainland Europe armies sleep. Unfortunately, this will leave the alliance susceptible to easy losses during the European peak times, so obviously some European nations will be needed. Fortunately, with NWO moving towards the more stronger nations, there are several European nations who can argue, and argue fairly, that their only option would be PANAM. These nations who basically don't have much of a choice, unless they want to join EDEN, would be the medium-small nations of Europe; namely, UK, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Estonia, Slovenia and potentially Sweden, Norway.

Out of choice

The USA has a long-standing fued with Eurocentric alliances. It was the reason that FORTIS was proposed, as well as the reason for their technical leaving of the EDEN brotherhood, and the formulation of the "Brolliance". As such, membership from an alliance which centres elsewhere is the only sensible solution for them at this point. They would more than likely be joined by the other nations on the continent, although the nation of Canada seems more receptive to an alliance with EDEN. I think that the long-standing relationship with China, as well as Americas considerable moves to free them could also lead to China being quite receptive to membership; as well as the fact that they are seemingly unwilling to participate with EDEN at present.

Ex PHOENIX nations

With the seemingly "exclusive" NWO, it appears that some smaller ex-PHOENIX nations may be left behind from this re-incarnation. Unfortunately, that means that their only choice (outside of EDEN), would be PANAM, unless the beliefs behind NWO change. The West Europe bloc of UK, France, Germany and the Netherlands would probably be more than welcomed by PANAM, who are desperate not only to pull off a major coup in securing ex PHOENIX nations, but also some European armies to ensure PANAM battles are not lost during the day.

Ex EDEN nations

Most notably, I think that Ireland and China would be receptive to PANAM. This would lead to Ireland being in the same alliance as the UK, a nation which they have a recent history with. For Australia, the move to PANAM would be the only real option available to them, as outside of America, their ties with EDEN are loose to say the least.


To conclude, PANAM seems to be a credible third option, however, for many new potential members, it is not a matter of choice, but rather, a relationship which will be required.







EDEN mk II

Whilst EDEN has yet to technically dissolve, do not be deterred from the facts; even if it doesn't change its name, EDEN will most certainly undergo massive changes soon. To say the least, it will lose key members, at worst, it could collapse and leave the world with just two remaining alliances. However, this is more than likely not going to happen.

Founded after the breakup of ATLANTIS, EDEN is the "other half" of the alliance war which we've witnessed for the past 2 years or so. Whilst originally founded as a brotherhood, it is accepted today that it is, to put it bluntly, a global alliance for the enemies of PEACE-GC.

The new alliance will have to contend with a NWO which is baying for blood, as well as a resurgent PANAM, unwilling (or unable) to help it. The next "version" of EDEN will be one which is formed again, not out of wish, but out of necessity. Now, lets take a look at the countries involved; I won't go into detail as the reasons for joining are the same for all; they can't leave.

Potential Members and why

First and foremost, the new EDEN will be significantly smaller than the EDEN we see today. There will, however, be very few new countries of substance added; if any at all. The majority of movement will be out of EDEN, and into one of the two new alliances. The remaining countries will be;

Romania and Croatia. The powerhouses, these countries will account for the vast majority of its income, military support and population. Should either of these countries leave, it will be akin to the death blow that Indonesia dealt by leaving PEACE-GC, or Serbia/Hungary leaving Phoenix. In short, without these countries, there can be no EDEN.

Finland, Italy, Latvia and Bulgaria. These countries are not small in size or stature. However, due to the makeup of the other alliances, they simply won't be extended an invitation into them. Finland are long-time allies of Croatia and Romania, and through the support of the previous months, are bound too tightly to the Romanian and Croatian states. Thus, they are marginalised to the point where outside of Romania and Croatia they really don't have a substantial enough ally to survive indefinitely. For Italy, Latvia and Bulgaria, as these nations are past members of PEACE or PHOENIX, they have yet to create the long-standing bonds which tie them to current members of EDEN; so won't be invited at the whim of those nations in either PANAM or NWO. Without support of current members; its impossible to join, and even then, even substantial support and lobbying cannot guarantee entrance: as Hungary found when they supported the Austrian attempted entry into PHOENIX. As well as that, all three countries substantially damaged their relations with most PHOENIX countries, and as all have shown aggression towards these same nations, to even hope for a PHOENIX country to support them is a fallacy.

Greece and Canada. These countries are nations which could, on paper, join PANAM. NWO would of course be out of the question for Greece, owing to the presence of both Turkey and Macedonia. For Canada, they lack the military size, or economic knowledge to ever really compete with fellow members. Whilst they could join PANAM, Greece would be a marginalised nation, surrounded by enemies, and Canada having already rejected the treaty and engaging the USA in a war of words, have probably burned the bridge under which PANAM membership seemed an all but certainty. However, with a change of heart, I think they still could (and should) join PANAM.

To conclude, because of the fact there is a third power, its clear that EDENs size, power and income will be drastically slashed. Due to the fact they're losing 3 huge members in Poland, Spain and the USA, the new EDEN will be much less capable in terms of spending power, and military campaigns; I foresee EDEN becoming a defensive alliance, which could potentially help either of the other alliances to tip the balance of a battle on an ad-hoc basis.







"But what does it all mean?!?!"

I'm wary of the massive size of this article, so I will attempt to basically outline what this new globe will be like, based on what I've experienced and the makeup of what, I, potentially, think could happen. I should stress that this article is written without the interaction of any state, so I could be completely wrong, but with the various things I've witnessed, read into and heard about, I'd say I am not that far off, if at all.

The new globe will, in truth, not be much different. A "third way" isn't a new phenomenon, and certainly, there isn't really anything of substance which points to a way in which things will change drastically. Many forget that EDEN was not always as one; we had PEACE-GC, Fortis and EDEN at one point, however, due to the growing influence of PEACE(keepers), the former two effectively merged to save the USA, and since then, Fortis was simply an off shoot of EDEN until its members joined officially.

I foresee exactly the same thing happening in the coming months. On paper, NWO is simply too big, too powerful, for either of the opposing sides to survive without help. If you look at the countries involved, its clear that the balance of power has massively shifted, with the major countries pretty much unanimously being included in NWO, save for Ameruca. So in effect, what we will have, is NWO continuously switching between EDEN and PANAM targets, and neither defending side able to effectively defend without help from the other.

At first, I am sure that all three will take tentative steps towards expansion, but only one of these alliances will have the power to actually get anywhere. And I find myself asking, which country will it take to unite PANAM and EDEN? Will America need to lose all but Florida once more, with the world reliving a great time for all?

I think that pride, if nothing else, will mean that not only are PANAM and EDEN seperate until its too late, but will also eventually tear NWO apart. Alliances can never win every battle, and through defeat we see complaints, we see alienation, and most of all, we continue in the cycle of renaming our alliances and pretending things will be different.

~jw

edit: apologies for any offence caused by the the original version; an oversight on my part which has since been corrected!