Oldfags, new alliances and the future of Aurora

Day 2,563, 21:53 Published in Bulgaria Bulgaria by Nane Vutov

Българският превод е тук.



The great cycle of the alliance building starts when new alliances form or when relatively strong countries decide to change side. Initially, big wars begin. After a while the stronger side wins and the weaker loses. Then the alliances of weaker side disintegrate. The countries of the weak side become free to form any new alliances they want. They try to use somehow the disagreements among the countries of the winning alliance. These countries are given opportunities to change side if they want to. The former allies from the weaker side look at each other with suspicion and watch who is going to make a move.



After a while the members of the winning side quarrel with each other and their alliance breaks. From the pieces new alliances form and everything starts all over again.

Most people think alliances change naturally, by itself. Well, they are wrong. While most people simply wait for the events to happen and remain merely observers, others are actually making the things happen.

There is a group of players, oldfags, who are always in contact with each other discussing the future of the alliances. Actually, for people participating in such activities this can be one of the funniest components of this game. People from enemy alliances gather together, plot ideas, make plans. Some people are very involved in such activities (as if this were not a game but reality). They write manipulative articles and comments, spread lies, take subversive actions. Many of these people are here almost since the beginning of the game and they are very powerful. One word by the oldfags and a country can change its policy or an alliance breaks apart.


Let us see how the oldfags perceive the present situation in the e-world. First, we have to analyze the weaknesses in Asteria.

THE WEAKNESSES IN ASTERIA

There are two weak points in Asteria. The first weak point is the anymosity between Hungary and Romania and the second weak point is Greece.



Hungary was a founding member of Asteria but remained a member only for a short time. Nevertheless, Hungary remained an ally of Serbia and many Serbs consider Romania an ally for only as long as the alliance exists while Hungary is considered an eternal ally.

It isn't easy for Serbia to have both countries as allies as this requires certain sacrifices. The needs of both Hungary and Romania have to be indulged. In fact, one of the main reasons at present Serbia is not considering Poland as an ally is that if an influential country as Poland becomes a member of Asteria, then Serbia will no longer able to keep the fragile balance between Hungary and Romania. One of these countries, most likely Romania, will have to leave.

For some time the oldfags are creating the illusion that Hungary is about to change the sides. Hungary had a MPP with Poland while it has no MPP with Romania or Greece. Many influential Hungarians prefer to call Republic of Macedonia by its official name rather than by derogatory and insulting terms. Well, don't be fooled! Hungary is not going to become anti-Serbian country, quite the opposite! In fact, the oldfags are using Hungary in order to recruit future allies for Serbia, an activity Serbia is unable to perform by itself unless it wants to destroy Asteria. The good relations between Hungary and Macedonia are a strong indication that Macedonia is being prepared for a future ally of Serbia.



The real weak point in Asteria is Greece. The proedenite faction in Greece is very strong. The so called "teroristas" are a formidable force fighting against the countries of Asteria. From time to time Greece is not afraid to make "strange" choices for its MPPs. Some of the Presidents of Greece have openly talked against Asteria. We can safely assume that Greece is going to leave Asteria as soon as this becomes advantageous. All this explains why Asteria supported Greece so vigorously during the recent attempt of Aurora to free Macedonia (a country providing no useful bonuses to Greece). It is funny, that the massive support Serbia gave to Greece caused the Serbian empire to disappear while at the same time Greece didn't lose a single one of its colonies.

Conclusion: the main weak point in Asteria is Greece. If we want to break Asteria, Greece has to change sides. Greece, however, can not change sides, unless Macedonia changes the sides too. And here comes the problem – Macedonia is not alone but a member of an alliance of friendly countries.



AURORA

Aurora is a real pain in the ass for the oldfags. If the triad Chile-Bulgaria-Macedonia allies with Serbia, the oldfags are going to have big difficulties ensuring the balance in the e-world. Therefore, Aurora has to be destroyed!

The attack against Aurora is twofold. On one hand, the oldfags organize a large-
scale war against the countries of Aurora. Chile is in isolation without bonuses and almost all other members of Aurora are about to be deleted. All this happens while the former members of Sirius and allies of Aurora are more or less in good shape. In result Aurora is defeated on the battlefield. Of course, the fact that a small alliance having only 10% of the worlds power is defeated (not without a resistance!) by an alliance with 55% only proves the resilience of Aurora. Nevertheless, I must admit – the psychological price the members of Aurora have to pay is causing some troubles.

On the other hand, each of the individual members of Aurora is "conditioned" individually.

Chile



In order to ensure that Chile does not ally with Serbia, Chile has to be allied with the only country that can not be an ally with Serbia – Croatia. All joint actions of Chile and Croatia have to be made successful. The deletion of China is going to be remembered forever in the history of eRepublik. Croatia supports Chile in all crucial battles. The great battle between Chile and Serbia about a month ago is especially indicative – not only Croats were tanking for Chile, but also many Greeks. In fact, the damage of Greece in favor for Chile and against Serbia was huge, much larger than what the "teroristas" normally do.

Bulgaria



Bulgaria is a problem for the oldfags by itself. This is because the actions of Bulgaria are so often illogical and unpredictable. During the past few months on several occasions we observed strange phenomena – Bulgaria sacrificed its bonuses and started wars leading to its deletion, knowing that this was exactly what was going to happen. What is even more interesting, the general population (more or less) supports such actions. The politicians of any country can only envy the freedom the Bulgarian politicians have. Let me give you an example. About two months ago Aurora and Bulgaria initiated a campaign against Greece in order to free Macedonia. In result, for two months Bulgaria stays without a congress and all this despite the several proposals for NAP by Asteria. Now tell me, what politician in other country can choose deletion when the alternative was freedom plus some bonuses? Well, this is exactly what is happening in Bulgaria during the last two months.

All this means Bulgaria is a desirable ally for any country in the Balkans and unwanted enemy. The only reason Bulgaria can not reach its full potential is that at present Macedonia is the only ally of Bulgaria among its neighbors. But no matter how exactly Asteria breaks in the future and no matter what side Bulgaria chooses, the other side is going to have troubles.

At present the Bulgarian press is flooded with with articles attempting to discredit Chile for not helping Bulgaria. Some of these articles have been published by foreign authors paying with gold for this luxury. All this is an indication that many of the oldfags want to see Bulgaria as an ally of Serbia. Well, I don't care whether Bulgaria is going to be allied with Serbia, or not – it doesn't matter. What I do care is the friendship with Chile. I really hope that this friendship is not going to become a victim of transient political machinations.

Macedonia



Macedonia – a suffering country used and abused in eRepublik. A country which stays deleted for who knows how long. Not because of bonuses – in fact this country doesn't provide Greece with any useful bonuses. The country is a victim of the internal problems of Greece in RL (the real life). In order to have united Greek nation, several ethnic groups in Greece are or have been in the process of becoming Greeks. This includes the slavophone population in Northern Greece.

Now, while Bulgaria is more or less passive about these processes, this is not so with Macedonia. In fact, Republic of Macedonia openly supports the right of the slavophone population of Greece to freely choose its own identity. And this is the real source of the animosity between Greece and Republic of Macedonia. The claim for the name "Macedonia" is more or less a pretext. If you look at the article in Wikipedia about Macedonia, you will see that part of this geographical area lies in Bulgaria. Greeks say there are people in Greece who proudly call themselves Macedonians, but here in Bulgaria, we also have people who proudly call themselves Macedonians. Do we have to hate the people in Republic of Macedonia because of this? This is ridiculous.

Now, you might ask what these RL things are going to do with eRepublik. Bear with me, I am going to explain, but first I have to say something about the name "Macedonia". Greeks want the world to believe that they own the name "Macedonia" and the people in Republic of Macedonian are thieves who stole the Greek name "Macedonia" because they didn't have their own name. Well, quite the opposite! Believe it or not, the first Greek claim about Macedonia is from the 20th century, well, at most from the end of the 19th century. Even the Bulgarian claim for Macedonia is at least two centuries earlier! The ancient Greeks proudly differentiated themselves from the ancient Macedonians and didn't permit them in the Olympic games, the latter Greeks didn't care about Macedonia and the present Greeks want to steal the name "Macedonia" by calling the rightful owners of the name thieves. By the way, according to EU and UN there is no FYROM, there is only "the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" - not a name, but a designation and "the former" is never capitalized.

Now, the reason I am telling all this is in order to explain the sensitivity of the Macedonians in this game about derogatory terms such as FYROM. While Bulgaria is difficult to control and unpredictable, with Macedonia the situation is quite the opposite. In order to force Macedonia to change sides one only has to use the name FYROM when necessary. There is nothing unexpected in the recent scandal between Croatia and Macedonia caused by the fact that several influential Croats tanked against Macedonia in favor for Greece and used (purposely) the name "FYROM". These actions were completely unprovoked but not entirely unexpected because Croatia has to make sure that in the future realignment of the forces in the e-world Greece will become its ally. Considering that Croatia is always forced to have Serbia among its enemies – the strongest country in eRepublik – this behavior of Croatia is totally understandable and a matter of life and death.

THE REACTION OF AURORA

I don't know what Aurora is going to do about these threats but it seems to me the best way will be to permit the oldfags to achieve their goal. I don't see a problem if Chile remains a pro-Syrius country and Macedonia becomes a pro-Serbian country while still being a member of Aurora. At present Pacifica is an alliance proving that this is possible. Some members of Pacifica are pro-Asteria, while others are pro-Aurora and others pro-Sirius. In fact, the various affiliations of the members of Pacifica provide this alliance with certain advantages. Despite the small size of Pacifica, since everybody has an ally which is a member of this alliance, nobody is actually going to attack it. I really think this can be a solution, advantageous both for Aurora and for the oldfags.