[Ekonomi Politik] Facts on Gold Mine Revenues and Depletion

Day 1,959, 10:57 • Published in USA USA • by Kemal Ergenekon


IMPORTANT UPDATE

A method to reach the exact percentage of the gold mine depletion has been found, verifying my guesses. eRepublik uses mathematical rounding rather than flooring, and the expected gold per click is 1.282. Total expected government revenue becomes 7235 gold. I have also updated the table to account for all the clicks the 5 countries received before the reset time. Especially the countries on the American continent experienced quite a few more clicks after my initial measurement.

Without further ado, here are the latest results, which are believed to be quite accurate:




[Ekonomi Politik] Facts on Gold Mine Revenues and Depletion

Greetings Ekonomi Politik readers,

Today I am going to present you with the data I collected, and my estimations regarding the new gold mines added to the game. Among other things, I will present you with:

1) The average gold earned per click
2) The expected total revenue a government holding a gold mine should expect
3) Estimated days until depletion of the 5 mines


Methodology:

Although eRepublik reports the percentage of the gold left in a mine, the number is rounded. This causes problems in estimation, as we cannot precisely know the actual amount of gold left in a mine. However, using the most common 2 rounding techniques, and using the fact that we have 5 countries instead of 1, I am going to be able to get tighter upper and lower bounds on the amount of gold collected per click.

Before skipping off to mathematical calculations, here is the data I collected on the treasuries of the 5 lucky nations to get a gold mine:



These numbers don't help much without the percentage of the mine depleted. The next table includes the rounded depletion rates, and performs some calculations:



Number of gold mine clicks per country is calculated simply by dividing the difference in gold in country treasury before and after the introduction of gold mines, by 0.1 - the amount of gold that goes in the treasury per player click. Serbia leads with 6049, followed by Poland's 4195 and US's 2880. Chile had 1379 clicks, and the slowest country Brazil has 1122 clicks.

eRepublik is expected to either use the usual mathematical rounding (93.6 becomes 94, 93.4 becomes 93), or flooring (93.9 and 93.1 both become 93). Upper and lower bounds for gold collected per person for each country and according to both rounding styles by dividing the total gold collected minus government's gold collected by the number of clicks.

Some good news: Since the gold mines work the same for everybody, they are generated by the same random number generation process for everyone. This means we can tighten the bounds by looking at the minimum upper bound and the maximim lower bound among 5 countries:



EXPECTED GOLD COLLECTED PER PLAYER:

1.27 gold/click with rounding
1.15 gold/click with flooring

These numbers are what you should expect to earn on average with each click. Error bounds are circa +/- 0.04 gold (this is what I mean by "quite tight").

EXPECTED TOTAL GOLD REVENUE FOR A GOLD MINE HOLDING COUNTRY

7293.71 gold with rounding
7954.10 gold with flooring

This is kind of a let down. I was fantasising about 15-20k earned by the government before seeing the actual random number generator in action.

Lastly, here are the expected number of days until depletion for the 5 gold mines, assuming they won't experience a change in ownership or a huge increase in citizenship:



It looks like only the Brazilian and Chilean mines are going to be around after a month has passed. Grand strategists should think about the possible consequences.

Thanks for reading thus far, and I appreciate your votes & shouts.

Best regards,
Kemal Ergenekon